UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

Summary

Retrospective: The generally exceptional climatic conditions of 1996 resulted, overall, in above average agriculture production but in some cases this also led to an over-estimation of specific local conditions/production and their impact on the food prospects for 1997. Large areas of the eastern part of Amhara Region and part of South Tigray had below normal rainfall distribution during the second half of the 1996 meher season combined with an early cessation of the kremt rains. The consequent yield reduction has not been sufficiently reflected in the estimation of relief needs for 1997, even after post-harvest assessments.

Current Situation in the Agricultural Sector: The generally late start of the 1997 belg rains, low rainfall, uneven distribution and short duration will result in a poor harvest. With the start of the kremt rains by the end of June, part of the belg crop will mature under wet conditions, probably resulting in field and post-harvest losses.

While driving through some belg producing areas the heterogeneous development and performance of the belg crops from one spot to the next, especially in the central and western parts of South Wollo, gives a clear picture of the erratic distribution of rains. North Shewa and South Wollo are the most affected, followed by North Wollo and the lowlands of South Tigray.

The long cycle meher crops, sown during the second half of the belg season in lower elevations (kolla, parts of weyna dega), show a generally poor development for this time of the year, especially in the lowlands from North Shewa up to South Tigray. In some areas, long cycle crops could not be planted for lack of moisture. These facts are a bad omen for the future harvest of the 1997 meher season, especially if the kremt rains should prove to be erratic or of short duration.

Some armyworm infestation has been reported from North Shewa and North Wollo, mainly harmful to the still young shoots of the long cycle crops. Measures are being taken by the different wereda offices of agriculture, backed up by the zonal departments, to control the pest. It is hoped that the onset of the kremt rains will help to ease the situation.

Livestock conditions are generally poor due to the prevailing dry conditions of the first half of the year, but will soon improve with the onset of the kremt rains and the subsequent restoration of pasture. No livestock epidemic were reported.

Human Conditions and Relief Activities: With a less than satisfactory 1996 meher season and a bad belg performance, conditions are becoming increasingly difficult, especially in South and North Wollo and parts of North Shewa. In some weredas of the Wollo zones migration is still ongoing, school attendance registered a significant drop, and market trends are worsening. Although no human epidemics have been reported in all visited zones, people suffer from diarrhoea in the most affected weredas of South Wollo and the number of malnourished children is higher than usual at this time of the year.

The first round of relief supplies has generally been delivered to the weredas according to agreed beneficiary numbers on the basis of 15kg per person/month. However, despite the fact that several disaster prone weredas are not accessible during the rainy season, allocations cover only the period until July with no food stocks for the meher season. This dangerous situation clearly reflects the low response of donors to the DPPC appeals, which leaves a high percentage of food requirements unmet. Considering the fact that the actual figures in the DPPC’s Relief Plan of Operations for 1997 (released in June) do not fully consider the updated beneficiary numbers, nor does the report cover the additional needs caused by the failure of this year’s belg rains, one can imagine the seriousness of the situation. In order to avoid a possible crisis, the relief response, suported by donors, should therefore be quick and adequate, taking into account a likely further increase in beneficiary numbers because of the expected poor belg harvest.

To get a picture of the very limited coverage of relief needs in the visited zones, refer to the following table:
 

Generally conditions can be described as more or less stable in the less affected weredas, declining in the most affected weredas in South and North Wollo, declining in the three most affected weredas of North Shewa, and likely to decline in parts of South Tigray.
 
North Shewa Zone

Until now, relief activities have been concentrated on the weredas of Gishe Rabel, Gera Keya and Mama Lalo, which have been relief dependant for several years. Preliminary results of the belg assessment were not yet available, but a significant increase in relief needs is expected, not only in the aforementioned three main belg producing weredas, but also from other parts of the zone (overall 12 belg producing weredas).

Major parts of the lowlands are lightly infested by armyworms, causing some damage on the still young long cycle meher crops. Control measures are under way and the onset of the kremt rains will help ease the situation.

The 1997 belg season is considered worse than 1994 and 1995, with an estimated 60% or more of belg crops damaged. Already strained by an unsatisfactory 1996 meher harvest, the situation in South Wollo is getting serious, as shown in Table III below. With little relief food in the pipeline and no food stocks in the inaccessible weredas during the rainy season, it is feared that the situation will deteriorate.

Efforts are under way to improve the accessibility of the central and western parts of the zone, with the new south to north link road (Alem Ketema - Tenta - Delanta - Lalibella - Sekota - Adwa), the improvement of the road from Guguftu to Mekane Selam (Rural Roads Authority in collaboration with SIDA) and the voluntary effort of the people of Debre Sina to pave the muddy parts of their road to assure access during the rainy season for relief supplies. The actual progress of works will only allow limited access to the respective weredas during the 1997 meher season.

The labour intensive approach of RRA/SIDA is a good example of alternative employment generation in a disaster prone area. With a strengthened supervision and adequate on-the-job training, the quality of works could be easily improved to the required standards, thus contributing to a better acceptance of labour intensive approaches.

Mekdela Wereda: From the total population, 8% live in wurch, 43% in dega, 42% in weyna dega and 7% in kolla agroclimatic zone. From 26 peasant associations, 4 are belg, 4 belg & meher and 18 meher dependant (including 1 town kebele). Self-sufficient in good years, the wereda has been now under relief since 1994. After an unsatisfactory meher season in 1996, one thousand people left the wereda during the period of January to March in search of work or to settle with relatives. With the start of relief food distributions the situation stabilised and migration stopped (17,775 beneficiaries for April/May and 27,775 for June). The third round supply for July is being transported and should cover the needs of 45,000 people. Following the bad belg season, a further increase of people in need of food assistance is expected from August onwards.

Tenta Wereda: From 29 PAs (& 2 town kebeles), 1 PA is situated in wurch, 10 in dega, 9 in weyna dega and 9 in kolla agroclimatic zone. The 11 PAs of wurch and dega are belg dependant. In normal years the wereda has a limited surplus production for marketing. After a bad 1996 meher season (early cessation of rains), migration to resettlement places and towns for work started in December and is still ongoing. Since the start of relief activities, the situation stabilised with people regaining hope (15,680 beneficiaries for April/May, 25,680 for June, whereas July supply is being transported). Taking into account the bad meher performance and the failure of the belg season, the wereda officials estimate up to 85,000 people will be in need of relief.

The worst belg crop stand could be observed in Mekdela and Tenta weredas, where most fields showed a very scarce plant density partly without any fructification.

Sayint Wereda: From the total population, 4% live in wurch, 42% in dega, 37% in weyna dega and 17% in kolla agroclimatic zone. About 25% of the dega area is belg dependant. Even in good years the wereda is not self-sufficient, but suffers from structural food deficit. After a insufficient meher harvest and a failed belg season, migration only stopped with the start of relief distributions (18’560 beneficiaries from March to May, 38’560 for June/July now being transported). The number of people in need of food assistance is constantly growing and has reached, according to wereda officials, over 50’000. Consequently, relief supplies are considered to be insufficient.

Debre Sina Wereda: From 31 peasant associations (& 2 town kebeles), 6 PAs are situated in dega, 22 in weyna dega and 3 in kolla agroclimatic zone. 6 PAs from dega & weyna dega are belg dependant. Self-sufficient in normal years with some surplus production for the market, the wereda is now relief dependant. Unusual for this time of the year, migration is still going on. The situation did not stabilise with the start of relief activities, as relief inputs were insufficient and part of the population is still without supplies. Until now only 16,000 beneficiaries are getting food assistance, whereas the wereda has assessed 40,000 (February) and 65,000 people (June) in need of relief.

Food supplies for the local markets of Sayint and Debre Sina normally come from Gojam area, but with the onset of kremt rains merchants can no longer cross the Abay river. With only little food supply from Dessie, local markets will fall short of cereals.

As all weather access is still not assured, all the aforementioned weredas asked for adequate food stocks to cover the needs during the rainy season, unfortunately without response. Supplementary food to complement the diet of <5 years old children has also been requested and will be supplied soon.

Like for the other zones, relief allocations only cover the period until July and no food stocks are in place to cover the needs during the meher season. According to the preliminary results of the belg assessment, beneficiary numbers are likely to increase by over 20% (see Table V above).

Long cycle meher crops are generally late in development and some damage is expected in Guba Lafto, Habru and Kobo weredas due to an army worm infestation. Measures have been taken by wereda offices of agriculture, backed up by the zonal MOA department, to control the pest.

 
South Tigray Zone

The first round distribution for April and May reached around 87,000 people through employment generation schemes and free food distributions. The second round supply, which has not yet been transported, should cover the needs of 109,696 beneficiaries. From July up to September the number of people in need of relief will rise up to 167,300, as the labour intensive projects for microdam constructions (SAERT) will suspend works during the rainy season. In October, the number of beneficiaries is expected to drop again to 109,696, excluding additional beneficiaries according to the belg assessment results. The preliminary figures of the belg assessment were not yet available, but with an estimated 50% drop of expected belg production, the number of beneficiaries are likely to rise accordingly.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

14 July, 1997