UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

Food security and drought

Weather patterns

The short season (belg) rains, which normally fall during the period February - April, generally failed this year throughout much of the country. Though production from crops planted during this season account for less than 5 percent of total annual production, in parts of the central and northern highlands the belg can contribute up to 40 percent or more of local production and is vital for overall food security. The early rains are also important for land preparation and the timely sowing of the staple long-cycle, main season crops (mainly maize and sorghum).

The main season rains began mid-June, in some places two to three weeks later than normally expected. Though the rains were initially favourable with good coverage, in mid-July/early August very heavy rains and hail storms damaged immature crops and led to some localised flooding. Where belg crops were unsuccessful and main season crops damaged by the heavy rain, farmers have been re-planting with short-cycle maize and chickpea in the hope of salvaging some production. Given the late start to the season, it is particularly important this year that the rains continue until at least the end of September.

Relief needs

The most recent crop failures are compounding a food scarcity problem that has been mounting for at least the past three years. Farmers in the worst affected areas are now largely destitute, having expended their assets, lost large numbers of livestock, exhausted labour migration possibilities, and resorted to stress migration. From an initial figure of 2,157,080 drought affected people released by the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) in December 1998, the number has now grown to an estimated 5 million people in need of food assistance until at least November. Though food relief is now getting through to the hardest hit locations and the main season rains are generally satisfactory, recent field monitoring reports indicate that the situation remains precarious and the numbers of people needing assistance are still rising. Areas of particular concern in this regard are Welo, North and South Gondar, Haraghe, Wolayita, Konso and Borena. There are also concerns that new needs may be emerging in the Somali region despite a limited revival of the livestock export trade and fair rains earlier this year.

The current DPPC estimate of food requirements for people affected by drought for the period June to December 1999 stands at 386,586 MT. In response to the critical needs in the most affected areas and in support of the overall government appeal, the World Food Programme launched in June an Emergency Operation (EMOP 6143) for assistance to 1.2 million people in eight regions. After a somewhat slow start, the donor response has been extremely encouraging with the EMOP now almost fully resourced. Direct bilateral food contributions and other donor contributions channelled through the NGO community have also much improved in recent weeks such that total pledges for the drought operation now amount to 336,349 MT - 87 percent of the total requirement. The details are as follows:
 

In the wake of the improved pledge situation, attention has switched to the issue of food availability. To ensure the continuity of ongoing relief operations and to enable a degree of pre-positioning of food to locations inaccessible during the rainy season, considerable use has been made of the National Emergency Food Security Reserve, loans being granted on the basis of guaranteed pledges. According to the most recent figures from the Reserve, grain loans for emergency relief distribution amounting to 132,535 MT were provided to DPPC, WFP and NGOs in the period between April 1 and June 30. Loan repayments during the same period, however, were no more than 28,000 MT and there have been serious concerns that stocks would soon reach a critically low level. The situation, however, now appears to be improving with repayments of around 200,000 MT scheduled to arrive in the coming three months. Uncommitted stocks held by the Reserve are currently around 58,000 MT.

Apart from continuing concerns regarding targeting of needy beneficiaries and the apparently continuing necessity of employing reduced rations in many areas, the main operational focus for the coming three months will be on the port of Djibouti. According to WFP, food aid shipments amounting to nearly 310,000 MT are expected during this period which will place a heavy strain on port handling facilities as well as the whole transport and delivery chain to regional warehouses and distribution points. WFP is working closely with Government, NGOs and donors in an effort to coordinate arrivals of both food aid, commercial food and fertiliser at the port and reduce congestion to a minimum.

Non-food requirements

Based on the findings of a joint UN/DPPC assessment carried out in June 1999 as well as other information from the field, the UN Country Team on 12 July issued a Relief Action Plan and Appeal for non-food assistance to people in the areas most affected by drought. Proposed inputs in the areas of water and sanitation, nutrition, health and immunisation, and agricultural support amounted to a total of $7.5 million, $2.2 million of which has now been resourced. This amount is 30% of the total appealed for. Potential donors are urged to consider the remaining needs in light of available resources. In addition to these actions, the NGO and donor community has been active in mobilising resources in response to the DPPC, the UNCT and other appeals for support to the most affected areas. The response to the UNCT appeal to date is detailed below:

Expanded EPI: Of the $609,000 requested for support to the Ministry of Health’s EPI programme in the most severely affected areas, UNICEF has reprogrammed $358,000 from its own resources, and has received confirmation of a $10,450 contribution from OFDA. Although below the total amount appealed for, these inputs are expected to cover the most crucial of the EPI requirements (provision of cold-storage equipment and logistical support, supplementary vaccines and supplies).

Medical Support: WHO and UNFPA have appealed for a total of $2,210,688 for medical support to health care facilities in the worst affected areas. To date, WHO-Geneva has confirmed an additional $100,000 for support to malaria control and is discussing with the Ethiopian Government a reallocation of $200,000 for capacity building and training programmes.

Water and Environmental Sanitation: The UNCT Appeal included $1,773,000 for emergency rehabilitation of water points and environmental sanitation in areas where the health conditions of the affected population are particularly vulnerable. Thus far, UNICEF has confirmed the reallocation of $353,000 for rehabilitation of water points in East Hararghe. UNDP has also confirmed that it has reallocated $43,000 for water point rehabilitation in East Hararghe. A $151,250 proposal to OFDA for provision of emergency water assistance in East Hararghe, Konso, and North Welo has also received a positive response. The proposal also covers support to urban sanitation efforts in North Welo.

Shelter materials: A proposal by UNICEF to provide 12,000 blankets in conjunction with the supplementary food distribution programme (distributed to vulnerable children under five and pregnant and lactating women) has received a positive response from OFDA.

Agricultural Support: In an effort to assist farmers affected by the failure of the 1998 meher harvest and 1999 belg harvest in replanting their fields this year and to prevent further livestock losses, FAO appealed through the UNCT Appeal for $1,008,000. FAO has made available $425,000 for seed purchases (late planting and short cycle crops for the meher season). UNDP has made available to FAO $80,000 for transport of both fodder and seeds as well as technical support. A portion of the transport allocation will be used to transport donated by-products from the Kombolcha Brewery to weredas where livestock losses have been the greatest.
 

Humanitarian consequences of the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict

There has been no further displacement of civilians reported since the last round of serious fighting in February. The official figure for the number of displaced civilians therefore remains unchanged at 384,858, of which about 30,000 are reported to be in the Afar region and the remainder in Tigray. While some discreet temporary settlements were established south of Humera and in a handful of locations in the central and eastern zones of Tigray late last year, the vast majority of the displaced are still living with host communities away from the immediate combat zone.

In the aftermath of the recapture by Ethiopian forces of the Badme area in February, there was some movement of people back to their home areas. However, further military clashes along the border, combined with the very real danger posed by landmines, led the authorities to actively dissuade people from attempting to return home. Nevertheless, with the start of the main rains in July and given the lull in fighting there has been considerable anecdotal evidence to suggest that wherever possible farmers have been actively cultivating their fields, in some cases, even between the front lines. Thus there has been considerable movement of displaced people to and from the border zone.

According to government estimates, the food assistance requirement (cereals only) for the 384,858 displaced people in Tigray and Afar regions amounts to approximately 5,508 MT per month. The total requirement for the nine month period March to December, therefore, is 49,574 MT. In March, WFP launched a special emergency operation (EMOP 6080) programmed to assist 272,000 displaced people for this period. The EMOP has a cereals component of 36,720 MT plus 8,631 MT of non-cereal and supplementary food. Distributions have been taking place according to schedule since the end of May but faced with difficulties in securing adequate resources there has been concern that distributions could be disrupted. Recent confirmation of an additional 10,000 MT pledge from the US government was therefore very welcome and by bringing total pledges against the EMOP up to 20,514 MT guarantees distributions for the next month at least.

In the non-food sector, the donor response has been respectable. The major contributors have been the US government (including a recent $366,000 contribution from OFDA for plastic sheeting, blankets and mosquito nets through UNICEF), the European Union (ECHO), the Italian Government (mainly bilateral assistance through the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission) and the Netherlands Government (approx. $1.3 million through the UN Country Team). While the majority of donors have focused on shelter needs, assistance has also been provided in the water and sanitation, education, health (including EPI) and social services sectors.

In general, the government strategy of absorbing the displaced into existing host communities and providing assistance through the existing services infrastructure has been successful. The Tigray regional authorities, assisted by the Relief Society of Tigray (REST) have been resourceful and efficient. However, as the conflict drags on and with no early return of the displaced to their homes anticipated, the strain on local communities and services is beginning to show. Among the priority areas for assistance during the coming months will be education. With students expected to return to school shortly, the regional education bureau in Tigray especially is concerned that more needs to be done to improve the temporary schools established last year for the displaced. Additional shelter materials are also needed, not only for the displaced themselves but also for their host families who have been forced to live under extremely cramped conditions for a period far longer than initially expected.

Relief needs in the year 2000

The Ethiopian Government is expected to undertake a comprehensive review the relief needs of the war displaced to coincide with its annual assessment of food needs in the country normally conducted in October/November. A consolidated appeal reflecting both the humanitarian requirements for the year 2000 in both the drought affected/food insecure areas of the country as well as the needs of the war displaced could be expected for late November/early December. As in the past, the UN Country Team will be working closely with the federal and regional government authorities in undertaking detailed assessments of the needs and in the preparation of the final appeal.
 

UN-EUE/September 8, 1999

The  presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.