UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

1. BACKGROUND - 1994 CROPPING SEASON

After an almost complete failure of the 1994 Belg season, the Kremt rainy season star-ted on time. From mid-July onwards, particularly in South Welo zone and smaller areas in all other zones of Region 3 (Amhara), above normal rainfall caused extensive flooding, water-logging annd hailstorms. Following this, the Kremt rains withdrew early. A further negative impact was caused by armyworm outbreaks in the two regions, particularly in the Western, Central and Eastern zones of Region 1 (Tigray).

The significant reduction in overall crop production in 1994 was therefore caused by:

• total failure of the 1994 Belg rains
• armyworm infestations
• above normal rainfalls after mid-July with hailstorms, flooding and water-logging
• early withdrawal of the Kremt rains

Whereas one year ago entire zones were facing drought, critical conditions were expected only in certain weredas and pocket areas for the current year. At the beginning of 1995, unlike last year when the entire Region 1 was expected to face most critical conditions, it was the highland parts of South and North Welo zones which gave reason for concern. By mid-1995 the situation is still critical in these two zones. Oromyia zone is also in better conditions this year, except for some areas in Bati wereda. The same can be said of the eastern lowland weredas of North Welo zone where for the time being food distributions are not necessary.
 

2. AFFECTED POPULATION IN NEED OF FOOD AID FOR 1995

In order to establish the need of food assistance for 1995, numerous crop assessments were conducted. The first pre-harvest crop assessment was carried out by members of the National Early Warning Committee composed of representatives from the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC), different line ministries, Non-Governmental Organisations and donors. In December 1994 and January 1995, teams from regional and zonal Relief and Rehabilitation Bureaus (RRB) as well as local wereda Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committees also conduct pre-harvest assessments.

Subsequently, the central RRC presented the following figures of affected populations in the zones of Regions 1 and 3 in the 1995 appeal (the figures of the revised 1994 RRC Appeal issued in April are also shown for comparison):
 
 

The National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Management (NPDPM) stipulates that food resources have to be used for Employment Generating Schemes (EGS) and for free distribution. The proposal is that 80 percent of the resources be utilized for EGS and 20 percent for free distribution to children, the elderly and disabled persons. Regional offices and NGOs are urged to develop and implement labour intensive development projects using relief food resources in order to contribute to the vulnerability reduction efforts.

In accordance with this policy, each wereda was requested to prepare proposals which were collected by the zonal and regional RRB and submitted to the central NPDPM committee for approval. The majority of the project proposals are in the fields of infrastructure (rehabilitation of schools and clinics), agriculture, soil and water conservation, afforestation and road construction. They have been designed so that participants can recognize their immediate and long term benefits.

The central RRC emphasized that the recommended quota of 80 percent EGS/Food for Work and 20 percent free distribution can vary depending on the physical conditions of a wereda.

In practice, the new policy was implemented with many delays. In some areas proposals were not approved due to insufficient guidelines on how the projects were to be designed. It was also felt that a lack of skilled supervisors and the limited avaliability of tools and equipment hampered project implementation. Therefore, as projects were not immediately beneficial to the local population, there was little motivation and participation remained lower than originally anticipated.

Looking back at the last six months, the following picture regarding EGS/FFW activities emerges:

• In some cases, proposals were not approved by the NPDPM and the population has reverted to FFW projects which were designed locally.
• In areas of Region 1 and 3, where well-established NGOs are operating (for example the Relief Society of Tigray in Region 1, the Ethiopian Relief Organiza-tion (ERO) in North and South Gonder, Food for the Hungry International in South Gonder), projects are being carried out according to plan.
• In some weredas FFW activities have been ongoing since the beginning of the year, but participants have not received any food and are no longer willing to continue their work.
• In some weredas food is distributed freely to all registered beneficiaries. This is due to a combination of factors including the existing critical conditions (population is too weak to work), the fact that the beneficiaries were involved in communal work earlier or have been given the option of working later on.
• In weredas where there are currently no food deficits, people are urged to participate in development projects without receiving food, for example in Senbete wereda in Oromyia zone of Region 3.

The RRB representative of North Gonder zone pointed out at the beginning of the year that implementation of EGS in the remotely located weredas of the Simien mountains was not feasible. It was stated that lack of non-food inputs and the remoteness of the area would definitely hamper the successful implementation of EGS.
 

4. BELG SEASON 1995

The Belg rains had a late onset this year. In North Welo and the Southern zone of Tigray rains started one month late. By the middle of March, the Belg growing areas of central South Welo and North Shewa zones had still not received any rain and the population was again prepared for the worst.

Although late, the conditions developed satisfactorily in the Belg producing areas of South Tigray, the lowland weredas of North Welo zone and Oromyia zone. These were the most severely affected areas one year ago.

In the second half of March, rains started in the central parts of South Welo and North Shewa zones. Farmers immediately began cultivation, although the rains were over one month late. The Ministry of Agriculture warned farmers not to exhaust their seed supplies for the Belg season, as the Belg harvest could be damaged by the onset of the Kremt rainy season. However, there was a general belief among farmers that the Belg rains would be followed by the late onset of the Kremt rains and that the risk of planting would have to be taken.

Meanwhile, in June, the harvest of teff (in the lowland and mid-highland areas) and barley (in the highlands) had already started in North Welo and Southern zone of Tigray, and first results were somewhat promising.

A team of experts from the Early Warning Committee of the Southern zone started crop assessments in the Belg growing weredas at the end of June 1995. Results of these assessments were to be available at the beginning of July. In Region 3, the outcome of the Belg harvest would only be known some weeks later and assessments were being planned at the end of June.
 

5. CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN SOUTH AND NORTH WELO ZONES

The joint Food and Agricultural Organization/World Food Programme (FAO/WFP) Crop and Food Needs Assessment Mission had already indicated in November 1994 that the highland parts of South and North Welo zones would definitely be among the food deficit areas of the country. A bad Meher harvest in 1993, an almost complete failure of the 1994 Belg season and a predicted poor Meher harvest in 1994 would leave their trace.

At the same time, however, the eastern parts (mostly lowland areas) were considered to be developing better conditions. As a result, little emergency food distributions have been carried out this year in the weredas of Kobo, Gubalafto and Habro in North Welo zone, Werebabo in South Welo zone, Dawe, Cheffa Gulla, Artuma and Fursi now Oromyia zone. The Belg rains of 1995 were also reported satisfactory to good.

So far this year, the problematic areas of the northern regions are considered to be the highland weredas west of the Dessie - Mekelle main road, between South Welo and Tigray. Emergency distributions by the Relief and Rehabilitation Bureaux and NGOs started as early as January 1995 in some weredas on this route. The declining nutritional status of the population as well as the threat of large-scale stress migration movements were factors prompting the RRBs and NGOs to act quickly.

5.1. North Welo zone

After the failure of the 1994 Belg season, the lowland areas of North Welo had a relatively good Meher harvest. In the highlands, however, soil degradation, poor fertility as well as plant pests resulted in considerable yield loss.

Both the RRB and the Ministry of Agriculture agreed that Delanta, Dawnt, Meket, Gidan, Bugna and Wadla were the weredas which would need immediate relief food assistance at the beginning of 1995. According to the zonal RRB, approximately 240,000 beneficiaries were in need of assistance in the six worst affected weredas of the zone at the beginning of the year. This figure already exceeded the number of beneficiaries which the central RRC released in the 1995 Appeal.

In order to improve the precarious conditions in the six weredas, the regional RRB had allocated 2,600 tons of relief food for immediate distribution. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC), having a low pipeline, started limited distributions in Meket, Gidan and Bugna weredas with 1994 carry-over stocks; and CONCERN, who had withdrawn from relief activities in North Welo zone for 1995, also agreed to supply Delanta wereda with a one-time allocation of 1,000 tons.

EGS implementation was delayed in North Welo zone due to the emergency situation and late approval of the programme by the NPDPM committee.

It can be assessed that the conditions in the zone have generally improved during the past weeks through early interventions. Distribution of the zonal RRB’s carry-over stocks, additional food aid allocations by the regional RRB and the starting of the EOC distributions have definitely been positive, and expected waves of migration have not taken place.

A major issue of concern to the zonal RRB and administration in Weldyia is the existence of thousands of displaced (ex-servicemen, settlers, returnees and persons expelled from Eritrea and Assab). These groups are mostly settled around the towns of Weldyia, Kobo and Mersa. As there are no funds available for their rehabilitation, most try to subsist through daily labour and begging. The RRB provides food rations for the most needy cases on an ad hoc basis. The German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) will commence a rehabilitation programme for displaced and ex-servicemen in Regions 14 (Addis Abeba) and 3 (Amhara), funded by the European Union. However, it is not clear yet to what extent North Welo zone will be included.

5.2. South Welo zone

The zonal RRB estimated 390,00 persons in need of food aid for a period of six months in the Belg producing areas of South Welo whereas an additional 200,000 persons would need relief food throughout 1995. Should the Belg rains fail again as in the previous year, as many as 750,000 persons could be expected to require food after June 1995.

Tenta, Mekdela and Lege Ambo weredas of South Welo reported stress migration and distorted market mechanisms as early as January 1995. In Tenta, the Ethiopian Red Cross Society and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ERCS/IFRC) are carrying out distributions to 40,000 beneficiaries since February. Save the Children Fund UK started to supply two-months food rations for 80,000 beneficiaries in Mekdela, Lege Ambo and Kelala weredas in March, to be distributed by RRB and the wereda administrations. By April 1995, SCF (UK) was transporting food to Sayint, Debre Sina and Wegedi weredas where the situation was rapidly deteriorating. The RRB are also assisting Debre Sina, Tenta, Lege Hida and Wegedi weredas.

Although the Belg rains finally started after mid-March in the central part of South Welo, not many are optimistic about the outcome. Farmers immediately started planting but at this late stage there is a fear that the harvesting period may coincide with the onset of the Kremt rains.
 

6. OUTLOOK

It is difficult to forecast the development of the conditions in the northern part of the country after July. The Belg rains were apparently better this year than the previous one. However, the onset and distribution of rains varied considerably from zone to zone. Definite results of Belg crop assessments were not yet available at the end of June. However, according to information collected in different locations during the Belg rainy season it seems that the Belg growing areas of Southern Tigray, the lowland parts of North Welo and Oromyia zone (except Bati wereda) will be better off than the respective areas in South Welo and North Shewa zone where the onset of the Belg was over one month late and some portion of the land may not have been cultivated. Late sown Belg crops in South Welo and North Shewa may be damaged by the start of the Kremt rains.

The RRB and NGOs have tried to pre-position food stocks at distribution sites, which will not be accessible during the Kremt rainy season from July - September. In Region 3, these areas include the entire Wag Hamra zone, the highland weredas of North and South Welo zones, Tach Gayint and Simada weredas of South Gonder zone and Adis Selam and Belessa weredas in North Gonder zone. The pre-positioning of food has been more or less successful depending on the availability of stocks of the various NGOs.

During the rainy season and harvest time it is anticipated that employment generation schemes will be reduced or suspended as farmers are expected to be working on their own land. Major and minor road improvement or construction work, which is ongoing in the northern regions, is also expected to be reduced during this period.

Disclaimer

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.