UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

Current Sittiation

Recall: Last years excessive Kiremt rains resulting in a lower harvest than expected, a widespread attack of sweet potato butterfly heavily damaging sweet potato crops n

during the dry period and a two months delay of the 1997 belg rains are the major causes for an increased need of relief food during this years extended stress period in Welayita.

Current Situation in the Agricultural Sector: After two months of rain, Welayita shows again its usual, predominantly green scenery with most agricultural land under cultivation. Still, the crop stand is at a development stage, which in normal years is reached in April. In addition, the recent dry spell of two to four weeks hampers the development of maize crops and affects the future harvest of haricot beans, now at flowering stage. Crops are witting in the lowlands and from Humbo southwards, they are even starting to dry. During the field visit rains resumed, but only in the higher elevations of the northern part of Welayita. Hailstorms had some damaging effects in pocket areas of four weredas.

Since around one week there has been a light army worm infestation reported in several PA's of all weredas but Kindo Koisha. Measures have been taken by the different wereda offices of agriculture, backed up by the zonal MOA department, to control the pest.

The overall livestock conditions are good. Aside from the usual endemic diseases, no epidemic outbreak has been reported, except for a still unidentified eye disease on cattle in Boloso Sore.

Human Conditions and Relief Activities: With an early start and a prolonged duration of the stress period, conditions are becoming increasingly difficult. Even better off farmers have by now exhausted their food stocks and cash earnings, while there is practically no food yet available in the fields. Thanks to a relatively good supply of relief food (in the average 75% coverage of the needs) and a generally improved targeting of the most needy people by the wereda DPP committees, a significant
decline in living conditions has been prevented until now. The general conditions can be described as going from just stable to declining, with variations from wereda to wereda and within the weredas.

The nutritional status of children under five also goes from stable to declining, but with the ongoing creeping hunger the number of malnourished children is reported to be significantly higher than last year. If supplementary food is mainly distributed through the wereda health services to the needy children, it is very difficult to assure the necessary close care and follow up of more severely malnourished children on the basis of a house to house care.

A significant increase of malaria cases in most of the lowland areas, including Kemba wereda, is another indicator of the severity of the situation, as resistance is declining with the increasing levels of poor nutrition.

Some migratory movements were observed three months ago, but now more people are coining to the wereda main towns in search of work, assistance and to sell wood, grass and even ensete roots, which are normally not marketed. Market trends have worsened, with a sharp price increase for maize and a slump for animals. Some farmers are reported to be selling part of their coming maize harvest by rows.

Future Prospects

With no further climatic hazards, the period of stress is expected to last until the end of July: up to the harvest of green maize. To allow people to recover and in order to avoid recurrent rehabilitation needs, relief activities should continue until end of August. With most of the relief food supplies already distributed and considering the low coverage in some of the affected weredas (see table in annex), continued and increased relief assistance is still urgently needed.

In this regard, Redd Barna has obtained 2'000 MT of wheat (half of initial request) and 100 MT of supplementary food fromn the Norwegian government, which is being delivered to Boloso Sore and Damot Gale weredas equally. Further supplies are envisaged but not yet confirmed. SCF UK has obtained 3'000 MT of cereals from the EU and 2'000 MT (2/3 of initial request) from ODA, as well as 200 MT of locally produced high protein biscuits, to be distributed to the seven weredas of Welayita. Continued supplies from the DPPC are also expected.

With the delay of the belg rains the current cropping season is shortened, having a negative impact on the overall harvest in 1997. Should climatic hazards persist, prospects would look very dark towards the end of the year.
 

Long Term Prospects

As already repeatedly stated by a number of observers, the Vicious circle of progressive impoverishment will continue to have its devastating effects in Welayita and North Omo as a whole, as long as the root causes of an ever increasing vulnerability to disaster with progressive structural food deficit are not eradicated through adequate long term development activities.

It has to be understood that one can no longer concentrate exclusively on the agricultural sector, which, despite a still possible increase in production and productivity, will not absorb an ever increasing number of people in a viable manner. Innovative development strategies have to be elaborated and implemented, situated in other sectors of the national economy, in order to solve the prevailing basic problems of the area. The main concern is, how to generate a maximum of alternative employment opportunities to ease the oversaturated agricultural sector.

Trying to help initiate the discussion about possible initiatives to tackle the prevailing problems on a long term base, we would like to outline hereafter just one possible approach.

North Omo has a high potential for wood production. The development of a wood industry can therefore be mentioned as a concrete example of a possible long term activity, which could generate many jobs in the secondary sector while simultaneously improving farmers income. The production of the raw material (wood & by-products) could be assured by the agricultural sector, while the processing and manufacturing would be taken care of by the secondary sector.

Long term planning could be handled by national experts of the forestry sector, etc. and would concentrate on the following main fields:

• Wood Production: Production of wood, especially for timber, needs time and has to be planned well ahead of industrial development. It is the starting point in view of a future development of the wood industry. The time factor has also to be taken into account on behalf of the farmers, main producers of the raw material. Most farmers cannot afford long term investments and specific strategies have to be developed to meet farmers interest. For example, farmers could get paid for planting and taking care of trees (timber).

• Human Capacity : Successful development in the secondary sector can only be achieved with skilled professionals. Professional education is therefore a key factor for future success. According to the possible range of industrial activities, professional schools have to be established.

• Wood Having assured a continuous production of raw material and a growing force of skilled professionals, the wood industry can develop. In order to facilitate the establishment of micro- and small to medium scale enterprises, a clear investment policy with adequate credit facilities has to be established. Finally, the commercialization possibilities of products have to be studied and facilitated.

DISCLAIMER

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.