UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

The following is a brief outline of the past activities and future plans in forecasting and managing the current emergency situation in Ethiopia.

The UN system, and particularly the EUE/EPPG has been actively involved in monitoring emergency situations in Ethiopia for the last seven years. As early as September and October 1993 reports from EPPG Field Officers began to highlight certain areas of the country that could face acute food shortages in 1994. In late October 1993 the EPPG prepared a confidential report on the pending drought situation that was shared with the UN agencies and the RRC. This report highlighted the erratic nature of the 1993 main rains, the fall in fertilizer usage, heavy pest infestations in many regions, the alarming population increase of close to 3%, and the likelihood of very poor carry-over stocks from 1993 into 1994. This report estimated that food needs for 1994 could range from 750,000 M/T to 1 million M/T and emphasized that early shipments of relief supplies would be critical if Ethiopia were to avoid a major emergency.

Although this report was not shared with the donor community, both FAO and the EPPG discussed the main elements of this report with the donor at the informal donor ambassador's meeting on 18 October.

From 5 November 1993 to 5 December 1993 the annual FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia to review crop prospects with the government and to estimate production and food needs for 1994. The mission's findings, which confirmed the main elements of the EUE Is earlier report and listed total food import needs as 1.025 million M/T, were shared with donor ambassadors at a meeting on 2 December and the actual report was issued later in the month. On 13 December the RRC issued their formal food and non food appeal to the donor community at a meeting chaired by the RRC Commissioner. Although the RRC's figures were essentially the same as the FAO/WFP Crop Assessment Mission's, several regional representatives present at the meeting noted that they felt there might have been an under estimation of the people in need of food assistance in 1994.

Since the RRC appeal was issued in December, the UN system has worked extremely closely with the RRC, the donors and the NGO community on virtually all facets of the relief picture. On the non food side, FAO, UNICEF and WHO all issued separate appeals in support of those elements of the RRC's appeal the agencies thought were most appropriate to their respective mandates. The FAO appeal for 1994 for assistance to farmers in northern Ethiopia affected by drought, pests and diseases covered seeds, pesticides and application equipment, veterinary drugs and farm a total of USD 4,775,000 from Sweden, EEC and the United Kingdom to be used for farmers in Tigray, North/South Gondar.

The joint RRC/UNICEF appeal for 1994 was finalized at the end of February and emphasizes close collaboration with other UN agencies in the implementation of relief and rehabilitation programmes under the cross-mandate approach. The UNICEF non food appeal is for USD 6.281 million and is aimed at responding effectively to emergency situations and improving the social and economic conditions of women and children. Unfortunately, to date the response to this appeal has been poor.

On the food side, WFP issued their own appeal on 21 January in support of the RRC's appeal and requested 150,000 M/T of cereals, 6,000 M/T of oil and 6,000 M/T of blended food. WFP also maintained a list of notional and confirmed pledges that was circulated on a regular basis to the government, donors and NGOs and, as the situation regarding shipments became more critical, WFP expanded this weekly update of pledges to include listings of specific arrivals and confirmed shipment information. These special reports were in addition to the regular Weekly Shipping Update which WFP has maintained and issued for the last five years.

WFP has also been working closely with the RRC and donors on the issue of the Food Security Reserve and a series of very specif ic steps have now been taken to make the use of this reserve as flexible as possible. The EUE, in cooperation with CRDA (the NGO umbrella organization), the RRC, WFP and the Food Security Reserve organized a special meeting with the NGO community on the Food Security Reserve and encouraged all NGOs to make maximum use of this facility.

In a complex emergency such as the one now facing Ethiopia, coordination and the exchange of information is essential and over the last four or five months all the traditional coordination mechanisms have been used. In addition to the monthly Donor Ambassador's meeting which are attended by representatives of UNDP, EUE, WFP, UNICEF, FAO and UNHCR, there is a weekly internal UN DMT meetings chaired by the Resident Coordinator, the WFP weekly shipping meeting attended by representatives of the NGO community, donors and the EUE, a weekly meeting between the UN agencies and the RRC, and CRDA Monthly Meetings, Task Force Meetings and Special Area Meetings to which the EUE and other UN agencies are invited.

Although the EUE has faced a financial crisis for the last year, they have nonetheless been able to maintain a minimal field presence and since the beginning of the year have issued a number of reports for circulation to the government, donors, UN agencies and NGOs on various aspects of the drought and emergency situation. (Please see attached list of reports.)

Upcoming EUE reports will include a special report on role of draft animals in production in Tigray and Wello and an assessment of relief food availability in the Welayita area.

Of particular importance was the special report prepared by the EUE on the emergency situation for the Consultative Group meeting in Paris in early March and, although the food situation was not part of the regular agenda, this report formed the basis of a special session at the CG meeting on food issues.

The EUE, in cooperation with the UN agencies, also prepares a monthly Situation Report for donor community and the UN on the general situation in Ethiopia and relief operations.

In addition to the longer term UNDP 5th Country Programme for Disaster Preparedness, the EUE has worked very closely with the RRC on a number of relief related issues over the last few months and particularly over the last month the EUE staff have been heavily involved with assisting the RRC in the Revised Appeal, which was launched on 14 April at a meeting with the donors, UN agencies and NGOS. The EUE was also able to provide assistance to the RRC at the last minute in preparing a short film on the current emergency. In cooperation with the RRC, WFP and the major NGOS, the EUE was also able to assist the RRC in preparing an initial report on the actual food distributions during the first quarter and this format will now be used as an interim management tool to obtain monthly information of distributions while WFP and the RRC develop a more sophisticated in-country food tracking system. More recently, the EUE was requested by the RRC to assist in preparing a whole package of briefing materials for a high level Ethiopia mission that will be visiting a number of donor countries during May.

The EUE, UN agencies, RRC and donors have also made several joint trips to drought affected areas and additional trips are planned for the near future.

Also in support of the RRC, the EUE now has one staff member seconded to the RRC to assist them in establishing a Resource Mobilization and Project Tracking Unit and it is hoped that this initial programme can be turned into a specific capacity building project within the RRC to be funded under the UNDP 5th Country Programme. In addition, the RRC has recently asked the EUE, as a matter of urgency, to place several additional advisors in the RRC for an initial period of three months to strengthen the RRC's capacity to handle and utilize information on all aspects of the relief operation. (Please see attached one page description of this project.)

Aside from field visits and the direct support to the RRC, the EUE is also working with the UN agencies, government and NGOs in updating the Relief Infrastructure Profile for Ethiopia. Although this project may take several months to complete, it is hoped that the final "package" will cover these areas:

Data base on trucks by owner, capacity, area of operation and age.

Data base on trucking routes by origin, destination, distances and, for some locations, truck driving time.

Data base of fuel stations/fuel depots by location.

Data base of all airstrips including location (longitude and latitude), type and length of strip and suitability for light and heavy aircraft etc.

File with sketch maps of all airstrips in Ethiopia.

Specifications for heavy aircraft most commonly used in Ethiopia along with a programme for calculating per M/T delivery costs from any point to any other point.

Data base of radio networks by agency and location.

Data base of the NGos by agency, main activities and areas of operation.

Data base of UN and NGO "emergency personnel" by agency and specialty.

Data base on the availability of emergency supplies by type of supply and agency.

Data base on warehouses by locations, capacity, owner etc.

List of libraries in the NGO and UN community and data bases for some of the libraries.

Computer maps of some areas of the country with road, airstrips, rivers, warehouse etc. listed.
 

In addition to a normal contacts with the government, donors and NGOS, the EUE will continue to monitor the situation closely; however, the EUE continues face acute financial problems and if the EUE is to fulfil its coordinating, monitoring, assessment and capacity building obligations, additional resources are imperative and the EUE must be given the flexibility needed to meet this very fluid and potentially dangerous situation.
 

United Nations Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia
Revised 14 June 1994

The original FAO/WFP/RRC Crop and Food Needs Assessment Mission Report for Ethiopia was issued in December 1993 and indicated that Ethiopia would need substantial food imports in 1994 to meet the needs of victims of drought, man-made problems, structural food shortages and to build up the Food Security Reserve system. At that time the total food imports were estimated to be just over I million M/T. However, even when the report was issued a number of regions indicated that they anticipated that their food needs would exceed the FAO/WFP estimates. Also, the original report estimated that the 1994 short-rain crop (the Belg crop normally harvested before mid-September) would be in the order of 500,000 M/T. Finally, as the pastoral areas have a different rain pattern than the main crop growing areas, the FAO/WFP report did not attempt to assess the food need situation in the pastoral areas.

Over the first few months of 1994 the situation in Ethiopia has continued to deteriorate for a number of different reasons:

As the effects of the poor 1993 rains and poor Belg become more evident, virtually all regions are putting intense pressure on the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) to increase food allocations - in many cases almost double the original numbers.

Rains in many of the pastoral areas were either late or insufficient and several areas in the east (Afar), the south east (the Ogaden) and south (Borena) are already facing acute shortage of pasture land and water resources.

The short rains (Belg rains), which normally start around mid to end February, were up to a month late and in many parts of the country only lasted a few days. As a result, only some 20% of the area ploughed was actually planted. Although there will be some "compensation" for the loss if these ploughed areas can be used later in the year during the main cropping season, FAO now estimates that the cumulative loss from the very poor 1994 Belg will be 150,000 M/T and that the anticipated 250,000 M/T compensation in the main growing season will be available four months later than originally anticipated. In other words, out of the 500,000 M/T originally estimated as the Belg crop only 100,000 M/T will actually be available in September 1994, 250,000 M/T may be available in November/December 1994 and 150,000 M/T will be lost completely.

Although donor pledges against the original appeal have been relatively good, arrivals have been poor. Port and up-country stocks are dangerously low and confirmed arrivals between now and mid-May only amount

The Government views the current food situation extremely seriously and has already taken a number of decisions at the highest level to revise the original appeal and to borrow government food stocks to meet what they foresee as a major crisis. The RRC has already announced an increase in the number of persons requiring drought related relief assistance from 4.5 million to 6.7 million and launched a major new appeal to the international donor community in Addis Ababa on 14 April. The revised total food aid import figures (the "bottom line") have not yet been finalized but it is anticipated that the total food imports will increase from about I million M/T to between 1.2 and 1.3 million M/T.

Although it seems likely that the second quarter food needs can be met through a combination of existing stocks, loans from state enterprises and new shipments, no specific shipments have been identified for the third quartet (see attached chart) and these other elements of the relief system are of great concern:

short haul trucking capacity to deliver available food to the remoter regions before the rains;

storage capacity at many locations;

the capacity among the fledgling regional administrations and regional Relief and Rehabilitation Bureaus to distribute such large quantities of food;

the UN's own capacity to monitor the situation;

the outlook for 1995.
 

Of there various issues by far the most important is the longer term prognosis for 1995. Although no one can predict whether the main rains due in June will be satisfactory, there is great concern that if these rains are not exceptionally good Ethiopia could face a major food crises similar to 1985 in 1995. With a population already weakened by the hardships of 1994 and an increase in population over the last 10 years of 12 million, a widespread drought similar to 1984/85 could mean food import needs of well over 2 million M/T (see attached chart of food and population).

Ethiopia is not yet facing a famine situation, but there is extreme hardship throughout the country and, with a fragile food pipeline, traditional coping mechanisms exhausted and limited distribution capacity, all systems will be stretched to the maximum and the situation could quickly deteriorate into a major crisis.
 

United Nations Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia
12 April 1994
Revised 29 1994

The attached scenario was prepared in consultation with FAO and WFP and was designed to highlight the critical situation that exists regarding the food pipeline during the third and fourth quarters of this year.

Although a new appeal figure in terms of food imports has not yet been announced by the RRC, this scenario indicates the continuation of a structural food need as well as food for the revised RRC beneficiary figure of 6.7 million.

A complete assessment of the Belg is not yet available but it is likely that the harvest will be much less than originally estimated and that a significant portion of the land prepared for the Belg will actually be used for the Meher crop. Although use of "Belg land" for the Meher crop will provide some compensation toward the end of the year, this compensation crop will be four months later than originally anticipated. The attached scenario assumes that Belg losses will eventually have to be added to the relief requirements for 1994 and it is on this basis that the shipment arrival schedule for the third and fourth quarters has been calculated.

As there are no confirmed shipments after May, donors are urged to expedite shipments and to make additional pledges to meet the current shortfall of 199,438 M/T against the original appeal.Although this chart is only a scenario, the needs are very real and urgent action is required now if a major tragedy is to be avoided.

Revised 29 1994

Disclaimer

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.