UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

1. Introduction
 

This field trip was undertaken in order to assess the situation in the vulnerable areas of the two regions after the completion of the harvest.

The overall picture shows an increased crop production in the two regions compared to the previous year. However, some zones and pocket areas in the northern highlands remain a cause for concern and food distributions have already had to be started in some places due to precarious conditions. In the Amhara Region, these needy areas include the entire Wag Hamra zone, the highland weredas of North and South Welo zones, the areas bordering the Tekeze Basin in North and South Gonder zones and the northern weredas of North Shewa zone. In Tigray Region, unfavourable conditions have been reported from a number of weredas in the Eastern zone, pockets in the eastern Central and Southern zone and from Dima wereda, located at the northern foothills of the Simien mountains.
 

2. Amhara Region

2.1. General situation

With the finalisation of crop assessments and with post-harvest assessments underway, the following picture emerges:

Crop production in the known food deficit areas of Wag Hamra zone, the highland weredas of North and South Welo zones, the eastern parts of North and South Gonder zones as well as four weredas of North Shewa zone were lower than noted in the 1996 appeal of the Commission for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (CDPP), mainly due to the early withdrawal of the 1995 kiremt rains. It is therefore not surprising that these affected zones report higher figures of people needing food assistance at the beginning of 1996. Figures stated in the CDPP appeal were based on the pre-harvest assessments, when the early withdrawal of the kiremt rains were not yet taken into consideration.

It was mentioned in several zones that future pre-harvest assessments should be carried out as early as they have been. This would give more accurate data on the outcome of the harvest. Also, the recurring confusion at the beginning of every year on how to deal with the higher beneficiary numbers reported by the zonal offices could be reduced.

2.1.1. North Shewa zone

Although the situation in this zone is better than in the previous year, the northern weredas bordering South Welo zone will need food assistance this year. Following the crop assessment carried out by the zonal Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee, the number of people in need of food assistance had to be increased. Although a total of 32,000 beneficiaries was listed in the CDPP appeal for 1996, the zone now indicates that 55,669 people will actually need to be assisted. In Mama Midr, which was considered to be self-sufficient according to pre-harvest assessments, was later established as in need of assistance; post-crop assessments in the wereda have revealed that initial predictions of the harvest were over-estimated.

The late start of the kiremt rains, erratic and heavy rainfall in localised areas and early cessation of the rain were stated as the main reasons for the partial failure of the meher season. Frost damage, which occurred in the higher altitudes, also affected the harvest.
 

2.1.2. South Welo zone

At the time of the field visit, post-harvest assessments were still underway in this zone. The zonal Bureau of DPP estimates around 300,000 people will require food interventions (twice the number stated in the CDPP 1996 appeal). The actual number of people needing assistance per wereda will only be determined after completion of post-harvest assessments. Should the belg season fail, the number of beneficiaries can be expected to increase to about half a million by mid-1996.

The affected areas remain the same as last year, with the most affected weredas being Mekdela, Tenta and Legehida. According to the zonal Bureau of DPP, although not mentioned in the CDPP appeal, Debre Sina and Wegedi weredas are still in critical conditions and will require food ntervention in 1996.

The problems of logistics were again raised by concerned officials. Presently, the zonal Bureau of DPP lack any form of transport vehicles, which are an absolute necessity for monitoring and early warning activities in a zone with constant drought-problems.

The 1996 operational plans of the organisations which had been the main distributing agencies of the zone in 1995, namely Save the Children Funds (SCF/UK) and the Ethiopian Red Cross Society and International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ERCS/IFRC), are not yet known.

Employment Generation Schemes will continue this year; however, the lack of skilled manpower (agricultural experts, geographers, etc.) is seriously hampering the successful implementation of these programmes.
 

2.1.3. North Welo zone

The crop assessment carried out by the zonal Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee was completed and approved by the zonal council.

The outcome of the assessment resulted in the establishment of a much higher number of people in need of food aid than stated in the CDPP’s 1996 appeal. The main issues stated to be responsible for the current poor conditions of the highland weredas are the early cessation of the kiremt rains and unexpected heavy rains combined with hailstorms in pockets of Bugna and Meket weredas.

In North Welo zone, Dawnt wereda has been merged into other weredas, with four of its kebeles belonging now to Wadla and 21 kebeles belonging to Delanta wereda, which is to be called Delanta Dawnt. Furthermore, 10 kebeles from Wag Hamra zone were incorporated in Bugna wereda and five kebeles from Ambassel wereda (South Welo zone) were added to Gubalafto wereda. The 15 kebeles from Wag Hamra and South Welo zones are highly vulnerable areas and have therefore been incorporated into the weredas in North Welo zone in order to allow the easier access of relief provisions to beneficiary populations.

According to the findings of the post-harvest assessment, the revised number of people in need of food assistance stands at:
 
 

The total population of North Welo zone is estimated to be 1.3 million.

The head of the zonal Bureau of DPP in Weldiya suggests that pre-harvest assessments previously carried out at the end of August/September should be carried out at a later date when more accurate production figures are available. Such a timing would also reduce the existing discrepancies regarding total beneficiary numbers, and would avoid the occurrence of time-consuming discussions at the zonal, regional and central levels.

The displaced populations are assisted by GTZ, who have contributed to ongoing programmes by building 20 low cost houses and providing the displaced with credit schemes. Additionally, the zonal Bureau of Bureau of DPP is designing small scale labour intensive projects in order to further rehabilitate displaced groups.

2.1.4. Wag Hamra zone

Wag Hamra zone was not visited during this field trip. However, the regional Bureau of DPP indicates that 4,500 tons of grain was transported to Wag Hamra from the CDPP warehouse in Kombolcha for immediate distribution in order to stop stress migratory movements. This emergency operation will cover 150,000 beneficiaries with two-months rations.

2.1.5. North Gonder zone

The post-harvest assessment was still underway during the time of the field trip, and food aid allocations to the various drought-affected weredas are still pending the results of this assessment. However, it is expected that the areas where food assistance is needed will remain the same as in the previous year (Belessa, Janamora, Beyeda and Adis Selam weredas in the Simien Mountains and Wegera wereda). In all of North Gonder zone, the zonal Bureau of DPP estimates that 242,876 will need food aid, with an additional 114,226 persons requiring close monitoring. This is an increase of 131,876 and 19,426 respectively over the figures of the CDPP appeal.

According to the zonal Bureau of DPP in Gonder the conditions in Adis Selam wereda are already deteriorating, and one thousand displaced people from this wereda have travelled in May Tsemri (Gonder - Shire main road) in search of food. They will be supplied with a food ration and urged to return to their homes. Food distributions in the wereda are planned for the month of February. However, accessibility of this wereda is difficult as reaching the wereda town from Tigray would take a distance of almost 500 km, and only short-haul trucks can be used to deliver relief.

Lack of logistics and communication was once again raised as a major constraint restricting effective monitoring by the zonal Bureau of DPP. Early warning and monitoring activities are not possible under the current circumstances. It takes a member of the zonal early warning committee two to three weeks to carry out an assessment mission to Adis Selam wereda. Consequently, by the time the assessment report reaches Gonder, the findings may already be out-dated and invalid.

2.1.6. South Gonder zone

In South Gonder zone, the estimated number of people in need of food aid for 1996 does not differ considerably from the CDPP appeal. However, some adjustment can be expected after the completion of the post-harvest assessment. The drought-affected weredas are as in previous years and include Ibnat, Simada, Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, Libo Kemkem and small pocket areas of Este and Farta weredas.

The zonal Bureau of DPP has received requests from the some inhabitants of Simada and Tach Gayint weredas to assist them in moving to the fertile areas of south-west and southern Ethiopia. This group is determined to migrate permanently.

Other than its drought-affected areas, the zone has other areas with agricultural potential, where productivity can be increased. The zonal Bureau of DPP is looking for NGOs that are willing to assist the farmers in these areas with improved seed, fertiliser and hand tools.
 

3. TIGRAY REGION

3.1. General situation

The results of the crop and post-harvest assessments in Tigray Region are being issued, with slightly higher figures in comparison to those listed in the 1996 CDPP appeal. The early cessation of the rains has reduced the production figures, which were estimates taken from the pre-harvest assessments, and has consequently increased the number of people needing food assistance.

The early warning department of the regional Bureau of DPP reports that according to the results of the most recent assessments, 850,735 people are in need of food aid in 1996. This is an increase of about 100,000 over the figures in the CDPP appeal.

The most affected weredas are:
Southern zone:
Wefla, Indamehoni, Didiba, Adi Gudom and Inderta
 Eastern zone:
Erop, Subasahasie, Atsbi, Tsada Amba and Asebe Sebia
Central zone:
Adi Arbate, Abergele, Ambera Meteka, Ahsea, Igela, Nadir and Adiet
Western zone:
Dima wereda entirely and pocket areas of Medebay Tabor, Adi Nebrid, Lay Keraro, Badime and Adi Hageray weredas.

3.1.1. Southern zone

The traditional belg crop growing lowland weredas (Mehoni, Chercher and Alamata) are in good conditions at the present time. Food shortages, however, have been reported in the highland weredas where the belg season is not crucial to the food economy.

The Joint Relief Partnership (JRP) and ERCS/IFRC expect to continue relief distributions as in previous years, but have not submitted their plan of operations yet. Any occurring food gaps would be covered by the regional Bureau of DPP.

3.1.2. Eastern zone

The fear that the crop production in the Eastern zone may be as little or even less than in 1995 has been confirmed by the results of the recent crop assessment of the early warning unit of the regional Bureau of DPP. Short and erratic kiremt rains, poor soil conditions and overpopulation are the main reasons stated for the unfavourable situation.

The Relief Society of Tigray (REST) and World Vision International (Atsbi and Wemberta weredas) will continue their relief activities in the zone, with possible support from the regional Bureau of DPP.

3.1.3. Central zone

The majority of the vulnerable weredas in the Central zone are located in the former Adwa and Tembien awrajas, whereas the weredas in the former Axum awraja are in better conditions.

The zonal Bureau Agriculture (BoA) had already made a comparison of the expected and the actual crop production of the 17 crops grown in the zone.

The total actual crop production amounts to 111,762.6 tons (67.0 percent of the expected production of 167,138.7 tons).

The major highland crops of teff, wheat, barley, barley/wheat mixture and horsebeans yielded 64,863.7 tons (71.5 percent of the expected production of 90,696.8 tons).

The major lowland crops of maize, sorghum, millet and finger millet produced 39,527.9 tons which amounts to 55 percent of the expected yield of 71,665.8 tons.

A late start and early cessation of the kiremt rains are given as the main reasons for the production shortfall. Striga infestation has further reduced the sorghum production.

REST will continue as the sole relief agency in the Central zone.

3.1.4. Western zone

Generally, the Western zone is the least affected zone in Tigray region. In the zone, however, Dima wereda (all kebeles) and pockets in Medebay Tabor, Adi Nebrid, Lay Keraro, Badime and Adi Hageray weredas are expected to experience food shortages in the coming months.

A major concern for the zonal BoA is the Striga infestation on the sorghum crops in the lowlands, from Sheraro to Humera. The total crop production loss caused by Striga is estimated to be over 30 percent.

Dima wereda, located at the northern foothills of the Simien mountains, was already heavily dependent on relief food in 1995. According to the zonal Bureau of DPP, this wereda only received four to five days of rain during the 1995 kiremt season. Furthermore, stress migration has already started to towns along the Gonder - Shire main road.

Immediate food distributions to the weredea has been organised by the regional Bureau of DPP for 26,000 beneficiaries. However, due to its remote location, transport of food aid to the area and monitoring of the situation is extremely difficult.
 

4. Remarks

With the completion of the field trip to the drought-affected weredas of Amhara and Tigray Regions, it is obvious that the above-mentioned areas have not benefited from the good rainfall as has been the case elsewhere in the regions.

Close monitoring will therefore need to be continued, particularly in Wag Hamra, North and South Welo zones, in order to allocate the limited resources effectively.

If necessary attention is not directed to the above-mentioned zones of the two regions, the affected population will continue to be seriously reliant on relief food aid.

Disclaimer

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.