UNITED NATIONS  DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia

I. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission

The Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 5 November to 5 December, 1993. The mission forecast 1993/94 production of cereals and pulses would reach 7.44 million tons, some 6 percent down on the record harvest of 1992, but still above the average for the last five years. This included an projected Belg (secondary season) output in 1994 of 500,000 tons.

The mission reported that per hectare yields in the peasant sector had fallen sharply and extreme local variation in production was found despite improved security, a significant increase in area planted and generally favourable early rains. In particular, very poor Meher (main season) harvests were experienced in parts of Northern Shewa, North Wello, East and West Hararghe, Tigray, North Eastern Gondar and North and South Omo. Yields in North Wello, Gondar and South Omo were so bad that in places farmers were unable to recover the seeds they planted and immediately faced severe food shortages.

The principle factors leading to the reduction in yields were three-fold: (1) lack of rain in July and August, especially in lowland areas: (2) widespread infestations of grass hoppers, bush crickets, stalk borers and striga weed; and (3) shortage of farm inputs, especially fertilizer.

Actual fertilizer consumption was 22% down on 1992 and about 40% short of the year's target of 203,000 tons despite a rapid growth in private-sector sales. The main constraints were an unfavourable pricing structure, late deliveries and lack of access to rural credit. The fall in fertilizer application is thought to be equivalent to a loss of production in the order of 400,000 tons.

Using an estimated mid-1994 population of 54.78 million and an annual per capita consumption figure of 123 kgs of cereals and 12 kgs of pulses, the mission came up with a total food import requirement for 1994 of 1 million tons, a reflection of the fall in domestic production and the rapidly rising population.

Of this figure, the mission calculated a total emergency food aid requirement (excluding refugees) for 1994 of 448,000 tons - excluding carry-over stocks of 80,000 tons and undelivered pledges of 39,000 tons.

Given the obvious variability of food production in the country the mission urged donors to commit a further 140,000 tons to the Emergency Food Security Reserve which had fallen to a dangerously low level. Without such resources, there would be no carry-over stocks at the end of the year to meet emergency food aid needs in 1995.

The remainder of the food "gap" for 1994 would be covered by a combination of structural and project food aid amounting to 367,000 tons, including suggested commercial purchases by the government of 100,000 tons.
 

II. RRC and WFP food aid appeals for 1994

The initial appeal for Ethiopia, launched by the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) on 13 December, 1993 showed considerable convergence with the analysis of the FAO/WFP assessment mission. The RRC estimated a minimum of 4,453,245 people would require relief food assistance during the course of 1994, of which 3,093,500 were victims of drought and the remainder of man-made problems (displaced, ex-soldiers and returnees). The total emergency food requirement was calculated at 577,586 tons - just slightly above the FAO/WFP figure of 567,000 tons.

On 21 January, WFP launched an appeal for a total of 150,000 tons of cereals, 6,000 tons of vegetable oil and 6,000 tons of blended supplementary food. This represented the WFP response and commitment to the mobilisation of relief food resources presented in the RRC appeal.

The extended dry season and failure of the Belg rains to start on time, have given rise to rapidly deteriorating conditions in many marginal areas of Ethiopia. By the end of the first quarter of 1994, it had become clear to aid organisations and the Government that the analysis given in the December appeal had been overly optimistic. Following a detailed re-assessment of food supply prospects in the regions by the Early Warning and Planning Department, and lengthy consultations with the regional administrations, on 14 April the RRC presented a revised appeal to the donors. This took into consideration the final outcome of the 1993 Meher harvest and the impact of the small rains in the southern and south-eastern pastoral areas.

The revised appeal described in some detail the effects of the very dry weather that had persisted in many parts of the country since December. It refered to the 889,000 people categorised as `vulnerable' in the first appeal who were now in need of assistance and the increasingly difficult circumstances faced by large numbers of nomads in Bale, Borena and South Omo. The crucial factor in revising the December appeal, however, was the apparent failure of the Belg rains in Wolaita, North Shewa, Wello and Tigray.

In the new appeal, the Government argued that the population requiring food assistance during the remaining nine months of the year would rise from 4,453,245 to an estimated 6,700,000. This included 1,120,500 people suffering from the effects of man-made problems, including ex-soldiers, the displaced and some returnees. The RRC stated that even these figures were provisional and that a further re-assessment of needs would be necessary later in the year once the outcome of the Belg season was clear and there had been some indication of the progress of the main season rains.

With the increase in the numbers of people in need of assistance, the RRC gave 895,500 tons and a corresponding increase in thThe correspondinge relief food assistance requirements for 1994 from 567,000 tons to 895,000 tons. On the basis of these figures, the food aid needs for the coming nine months have been estimated at 750,850 tons. Subsequently, the drought affected population has increased from 3.04 million to 5.58 million. So far, the TGE has only revised emergency requirements and it is unclear whether the total import gap, originally estimated at 1,074,000 tons by the FAO/WFP Crop Assessment Mission in December, will rise accordingly.

The revised appeal also seeks approximately $3.5 million in non-food assistance above the $6.2 million requested in the joint RRC-UNICEF appeal issued in late February. The appeal stresses the importance of non-food items in order to make relief assistance more effective, and to improve the speed of response.
 

III. Food pledges and pipeline as of 25 February

Given substantial food needs in parts of Ethiopia affected by crop failure in 1993, combined with exceptionally low carry-over stocks at the end of the year, it was imperative that donors responded quickly to the RRC appeal. By 25 February, notional pledges amounting to 752,545 tons had been recorded by WFP, including 437,025 tons ear-marked for relief/regular programmes. Despite this apparently good response, actual confirmed pledges remain very low at 344,643 tons, including 298,295 tons against emergency relief requirements. It is therefore still imperative that donors confirm their pledges as quickly as possible and arrange shipment to Ethiopia without delay. Donors should also be urged to make additional commitments to make up the current deficit under the Food Security Reserve and to meet greater than anticipated emergency relief needs.

Total deliveries to 25 February amount to 76,910 tons, including 33,612 tons of 1994 pledges. Apart from 9,324 tons under structural food assistance and 8,159 tons ear-marked for refugees, all the above shipments are for the relief/regular food aid programme. Of particular concern at present is the very thin pipeline over the coming months. For the period 25 February to 4 April, only 24,000 tons is scheduled to arrive at the ports. After this date WFP report that there are no confirmed shipments, and can give tentative estimates only.

More worrying still are the very low in-country stocks. As at 16 February, total stocks were estimated at 92,026 tons - enough for roughly two months of distributions at a rate required to meet the RRC assessment of the population in need. The stock situation is most critical in Tigray where supplies are now almost exhausted.
 

IV. Regional situation as of February 1994

Overview

A rather unsatisfactory meher harvest in many parts of the north, south and east last year, mainly due to erratic rainfall, has been followed by an exceptionally prolonged and rainless dry season throughout the country. This has accentuated an already serious situation in many vulnerable parts of the country. This has been especially so in the lowland pastoral areas of the South and South-East, where grazing and ground water resources, already affected by poor rains in October/November last year, have deteriorated further.

In parts of Tigray and North Wello, the needs assessments conducted late last year by both the UN and RRC are now thought to have been overly optimistic. The same appears to be true of parts of the Ogaden, where very little crop production followed poor rains in October/November, and Borena where an already vulnerable population, still recovering from the drought of 1991/92, were similarly affected by the poor late rains. In East and West Haraghe, however, the food supply situation now appears to have improved slightly and the relief needs are expected to be less than originally predicted.

Tigray

Eastern and Southern zones are suffering acute drought conditions. Food aid stocks are now exhausted following targeted distributions by the Relief Society of Tigray (REST) and the Joint Relief Partnership (JRP) during January and February. The RRC are mobilizing 5,000 tons of grain from stocks held in Nazareth which is expected to be distributed by the Region 1 Relief and Rehabilitation Bureau (RRB). The pipeline for Tigray is presently very thin with only 1,750 tons confirmed for REST in March and another 10,000 tons expected to arrive (but no vessel nominated) in April. Unless other stocks are identified, the timing of this latter consignment will be critical to the emergency programme in the region.

In the Eastern Zone (Wemberta) there have already been confirmed reports of deaths due to malnutrition. The usual "coping strategies" are of limited effectiveness this year, with household assets at low levels and opportunities for petty trade and waged labour very limited. People are selling livestock but the terms of trade (price ratio between grain and animals) have become very unfavourable. Trade between Eastern Tigray and the Afar pastoralist people, another common source of income, has apparently been restricted under the new policy of regionalization. REST report some distress migration into Eritrea, which is also seriously short of food aid.

In the Southern Zone the drought is very severe. Water sources are reported to be at their lowest since 1985. Depletion of natural grazing resources has forced farmers to feed cactus to cattle. This, too, is reported to be a last-resort measure not seen in Tigray since 1985. Loss of cattle is a serious threat to the economy of this agro-pastoralist area and could reduced the capacity to prepare land adequately. Local government has received reports of some deaths and signs of unusual migration. The belg rains are very important in this area, particularly for land preparation; if they do not come soon there could be severe livestock losses and the danger of yet another poor cropping season.

Distribution of food aid in the region has so far averted any serious manifestations of hunger, even though no more than 50% of target beneficiaries received assistance due to lack of food stocks. With the relief food pipeline nearly empty, a joint UN/RRC assessment mission visiting the region in early February emphasized the importance of making special efforts to mobilize in-country stocks and divert supplies to the north. The RRC have already taken steps to send 5,000 tons from stocks held in Nazareth; REST and JRP need to do something similar without delay. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian Red Cross are about to start a relief food-for-work programme for some 70,000 beneficiaries in parts of Hintalo, Wajerat and Adi Gudom.

Wello

The worst-hit area of North Wello is the north-west zone bordering Tigray and Gondar (the former Wag and Lasta awrajas, one of the epicenters of the 1984/85 famine). Grain prices are rising and livestock prices falling sharply. Some distress migration took place in late 1993 but people returned home after receiving some relief assistance and following reassurances of continued help in the villages from local government. Representatives from the remoter areas have come to Sekota and Korem recently saying they will have to move soon unless food reaches them. Stocks are reportedly too low at present for planned distributions to be maintained. Some confusion still persists over a Red Cross plan to begin distributions in areas that used to be under the JRP.

Gondar

Belessa, Debark and Ibnat in North and South Eastern Gondar remain seriously affected by drought. RRC have no food stocks at present. In the northern zone, the JRP, through the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC), are providing relief rations to a target of 50,000 beneficiaries. Though stocks for February were enough to meet the planned case load, the EOC report total numbers in need still exceed available food supplies.

In the Southern Zone, there are reports of some cases of serious malnutrition. Some unusual movements of people and animals are said to be taking place in the zone as the Tekezze River is no longer high enough to provide a reliable source of water. Food for the Hungry International (FHI) expect to take over food distributions from the EOC in the worst affected areas of Semada woreda in Gayint from the beginning of March. In general, the short-term food pipeline for Gondar appears more certain than for Wello or Tigray. A recent assessment by FHI has confirmed that, as in Wello, distress migrations have been curbed by expectations of timely food distributions.

East and West Hararghe

Despite some late rain in October which mitigated harvest losses in parts of Eastern Hararghe, other areas of both the Western and Eastern Zones still suffered significant crop damage. CARE market data shows that prices of both grains and livestock up to December 1993 were more stable in Hararghe than in northern parts of the country, although the absence of the normal post-harvest drop in grain prices is indicative of a relative scarcity of supply. CARE report their food pipeline is reasonably good at present and they expect to be able to meet the basic relief needs in their operational areas. Further monitoring of market conditions and actual aid distributions will be needed, however, over the coming months to ensure coverage is adequate. Nutritional surveillance data from SCF (UK) will be available soon.

Ogaden

Grain prices have begun to climb in the Ogaden following unsatisfactory rains in October/November and a reduction in relief food distributions. Though ground water levels are falling at present, pasture is reasonably good and the condition of livestock remains satisfactory. Further recovery from the drought of 1991/92 will depend greatly on the success of the main season (Gu) rains which are expected during April/May.

Borena

CARE reports a rapidly deteriorating situation following below normal short rains in October/November, and made worse by the present, prolonged, dry season. Falling ground water levels and poor pasture is undermining a previously-reported recovery of the livestock economy in this mainly pastoral area. Small-stock and calves are beginning to die and herders are moving both their dry and milking animals in search of better pastures to the north of Yavello. Grain prices have increased by 25% over normal levels and the terms-of-trade between animals and grain have declined considerably. Any failure of the main March/April rains will result in a further worsening of the situation.

North and South Omo

The situation in the densely populated Wolaita area of North Omo continues to merit close monitoring. Redd Barna, who work in the Bolosso area, report increasing malnutrition. They are presently conducting a survey to obtain better information. A recent survey by SCF (UK) found a sharp decline in the nutritional status of children under five between October/ December 1993 and January/February 1994. Since Wolaita depends heavily on the belg harvest in August/September, the peak of its normal hungry season is about six months away. If the belg rains are poor, food security in this area could rapidly decline.

Further south, the Konso and Gardula areas of South Omo, increasingly acute food shortages have been reported by the Ethiopian Evangelical Church (Mekane Yesus) and Lutheran World Federation (LWF). Redd Barna have begun a supplementary feeding and Food-for-work programme in Hamer woreda which will reach approximately 18,000 beneficiaries. LWF have begun a similar supplementary feeding programme in Konso. There are no reports of RRC distributions in the region, though food was supposed to have been allocated from stocks held in Nazareth and despatched in December.

Other areas

A number of reports of food shortages are emerging from areas where such problems are very unusual. This includes Bali where the RRC are despatching 2,000 tons of food for distribution in the lowland eastern areas. The actual number of people in need has not yet been determined. Emergency food needs have also been reported for the Mizan Tefari area of Kefa where the local administration claim 210,000 people are threatened with famine.
 

V. Emergency Food Security Reserve (EFSR)

The EFSR stock position as at 24 February was as follows (in metric tons):
 

Nazareth	46,313
Sheshamane	8,080
Kombolcha	1,000
Total	55,393

Loans totaling 27,730 tons remain outstanding. 16,079 tons is owed by the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE - formerly the Agricultural Marketing Corporation, or AMC), however, due to a dispute between the EFSR administration and the EGTE it seems unlikely that this loan will be re-paid. Of the remaining loans, 6,320 tons is owed by WFP and the rest by non-governmental organizations.

Despite a relaxation of the rules governing the release of stocks from the reserve, only one significant loan has been made over the past three months, that of 3,000 tons through LWF to maintain JRP relief operations in the north. This is very much contrary to expectations as both the UN and RRC have strongly promoted the use of the reserve as a way of compensating for low in-country stocks and a thin pipeline. Some NGOs still complain of poor quality grain from the reserve and of over-stringent repayment conditions and interest rates. These alone, however, are not enough to explain why more withdrawals have not been made. With reports from many areas that food stocks are becoming critically low, the EFSR should now be proving its full worth, enabling NGOs to maintain relief distributions by 'cashing-in' existing confirmed pledges. As this does not appear to be happening, donors can be expected to ask questions about the cost-effectiveness of maintaining such a facility in Ethiopia.

Of the 140,000 tons requested under the 1994 appeal to build up the reserve by the year end to its original target capacity of 205,000 tons, a total of 30,828 tons has been committed through WFP as follows:
 
 

Australia	13,000
Canada	10,828
WFP	7,000

There are no confirmed shipments to date.

The strategic reserve will be stored at five key locations: Nazareth, Kombolcha, Sheshamane, Mekelle and Dire Dawa. Warehousing currently in use is either owned by the EFSR itself or is rented from the RRC or EGTE. 25,000 tons of warehouse space is due to be erected in Mekelle during the course of this year. Out of 30,000 tons of warehouse space planned for Kombolcha, around 15,000 tons will be made available this year, with the remainder expected to be constructed during 1995.
 

VI. Belg season prospects and future outlook

Relief operations to-date, though limited, have so far prevented the development of full-scale famine conditions in many areas, especially the north. All the early indicators, however, suggest the present situation can only deteriorate further. Grain prices at this time should be falling, or at least be stable. In both the North-East and South-East the trend is clearly the reverse, indicative of poor food supply and increasing stress. In many of these drought affected areas, reports of unusual migration can be expected to increase as can the incidence of malnutrition. If food aid distributions are not maintained from now through to the start of the main season harvest in October/November, there could be a very rapid descent into famine conditions in the already very vulnerable areas of Tigray, Gondar, North Wello and Borena.

With meteorologists predicting no substantial rain in Ethiopia until mid-March, a late start to the belg season is anticipated. The timing of these rains has become increasingly erratic in recent decades. They are generally expected to fall between mid-February and mid-May, with some showers during January which facilitate land preparation and help revive pasture.

This year has so far been exceptionally dry with no rain in January and only some very light rainfall in highland areas during February. Combined with the early end to the 1993 meher season in many areas, this has effectively meant a very long dry season. According to FAO, the outlook for the first part of March remains very much the same, with Eastern and North-Eastern parts of the country not expected to experience any substantial rain. From mid-March, however, rainfall is expected to normalize throughout the North and North-East.

While it is too early to make any conclusive statements, when the belg rains do come the relatively late start will almost certainly mean a later harvest for both the belg season crops and the long-cycle meher crops, which rely on the early rains for land preparation and sowing. With no indications that the late start to the belg rains will be compensated by an extension of the rains into May, FAO are predicting a belg crop below the 500,000 tons predicted by the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Mission in December last year.

A good belg season, even if late, will be crucial to the food security of belg-producing areas (such as Wolaita, South Wello, North Shewa and Southern Tigray) in the second half of the year. It would also limit livestock losses, and raise the chances of a good meher harvest in October-December. It would not, however, solve the food supply problems of the meher-dependent majority of farmers for the current year. a poor belg season could be disastrous, pushing already very vulnerable areas like Wolaita and Southern Tigray into an acute crisis and probably signalling a longer-term food problem for the country as a whole.

Thanks and acknowledgments to Kay Sharp of the USAID Famine Early Warning Project, Addis Ababa.
 

ANNEXES

I. 1994 Ethiopia Food Balance Sheet
II. Notional pledges against 1994 food aid requirements - dated 25/02/94
III. 1994 confirmed food aid pledges - dated 25/02/94
IV. 1994 food aid arrivals - dated 22/02/94
V. Summary of confirmed expected shipments - dated 22/02/94
 

Disclaimer

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.