There is no guarantee that the promise will not be shattered by renewed turmoil. And the tasks of reconstruction and of addressing past injustices are enormous. But as 1995 begins, this third of the continent with 128 million people has emerged from more than thirty years of war. Now elected governments and grassroots groups finally can begin confronting only the normal problems of development and inequality.
Elsewhere on the continent, the number of countries engaged in all-out strife is less than in previous years. Still, civil conflicts continue in Sudan, Liberia, Somalia, and as many as ten other countries. Rwanda is still suffering the aftermath of genocide that killed half a million people, and new explosions of violence are feared there or in Burundi or Zaire.
Grassroots demands for democracy and sustainable development are growing. But transitions to democracy are blocked or stalled in major countries such as Nigeria and Zaire. Democratization is hampered as well by economic policies of structural adjustment and the increasing marginalization of Africa in the world economy.
Election Impact
Although the Clinton Administration has been faulted by Africa advocates for its lack of sustained attention to Africa, the prospects after last November's elections are even more appalling. The likely scenario is an all-out assault on African interests by conservative Republicans, met by continued timidity from the Administration. Budget cutters will target U.S. financing for peacekeeping and for sustainable development, as well as U.S. support for agencies such as the United Nations Development Program that are of particular importance for African countries.
National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, visiting seven African countries in December, warned that "Those of us who recognize the importance of continued active engagement and support for Africa are confronting the reality of shrinking resources and an honest skepticism about the return on our investments in peacekeeping and development."
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
U.S. involvement will make a major difference this year in a number of areas, among them:
Rwanda: In the wake of the genocide directed against Tutsis and moderate Hutus by the former regime, the new predominantly Tutsi coalition government faces enormous obstacles in restoring order and economic stability. It must control revenge killings by its own troops and supporters, and it must cope with the security threat posed by approximately 1.7 million Hutu refugees outside the country, most under the control of the former regime. The new leaders are responsible for a population of five to six million, including over 500,000 Tutsis, both survivors of the genocide and others returned from decades in exile. The international community, which failed to act promptly last year when it might have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, is now responding only sluggishly to multiple needs. These include accountability for the genocide, human rights monitoring against revenge killings, rebuilding government institutions, and efforts to avoid new explosions of violence. Thus far, emergency aid managed by foreign agencies has not been accompanied by the institutional support necessary to avoid further catastrophe.
Sudan: War continues in the southern part of the country, where hundreds of thousands of civilians are caught in conflict between the brutally repressive Sudanese government and factions of the southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Army. Sudan's neighbors have been engaged in mediation, but the Khartoum regime has been intransigent, and all sides are guilty of abuses against civilians. The United States has provided support for the mediation effort, but international pressure on the parties is still inadequate.
Angola: Fighting declined after the signing of the November cease-fire, despite mutual accusations of cease- fire violations by the government and Unita. Unita leader Jonas Savimbi did not attend the signing ceremony in protest against government military advances preceding the cease-fire. The timing and financing of some 7,000 U.N. peacekeepers, most to come from southern African states, is still uncertain. The United States, which pressed for generous concessions to its former client Unita during the negotiations, has a particular responsibility to help implement the accord.
Liberia: Latest efforts to secure a stable cease-fire have been ineffective, and the major West African countries with peacekeeping forces there (Nigeria and Ghana) are considering further troop withdrawals. Pervasive insecurity affects as many as 3.5 million people in Liberia, Sierra Leone and neighboring refugee- receiving countries. The United States--with its historic connection to Liberia and past support for dictator Samuel Doe, whose regime precipitated this crisis--has a continued responsibility to help find more constructive ways for the international community to be involved.
Nigeria: Despite continued protests by pro-democracy groups, Nigeria's military ruler General Sani Abacha has refused to abide by the results of the June 1993 presidential election. Chief Moshood Abiola, who won 59% of the votes, is on trial for treason. The military regime shows little sign of making concessions. The United States has condemned the regime, but unless the military rulers come under much stronger pressure from outside there will be little chance of restoring democracy peacefully. This crisis could easily escalate in unpredictable ways. The consequences--in Africa's most populous country--could be a disaster of monumental proportions for Nigeria and the entire continent.
Zaire: Strongman Mobutu Sese Seko gained a new lease on life from the crisis in Rwanda, and has also benefited from a divided opposition. He apparently hopes to parlay his renewed respectability and control over the army into an election victory in 1995. New Prime Minister Kengo wa Dondo, a World Bank favorite criticized by radical opposition forces, is both competing with and cooperating with Mobutu, while military abuses against civilians continue.
Development and Relief Issues
In December, in one of the first Republican initiatives affecting Africa, Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky announced that he will introduce legislation for radical revisions in the foreign aid system. This is likely only the beginning of an assault on aid to Africa from conservative Republicans in both the House and Senate.
While Africa advocacy groups generally agree that major reforms are needed to ensure that aid contributes to sustainable development, Sen. McConnell's "reforms" move in exactly the opposite direction. Among other measures, he proposes abolishing the African Development Foundation and eliminating the Development Fund for Africa as earmarked allocations. The African Development Foundation, currently modestly funded at less than $17 million a year, supports small community-based development efforts. The Development Fund for Africa, at $800 million a year, operates under legislative guidelines stressing sustainable development, and ensures a guaranteed share of allocations for African countries.
In the proposed revision, references to support for sustainable development as an objective of aid are eliminated. Instead, aid is contingent on "commitment to free market principles" and direct relevance to U.S. security. Sen. McConnell wants to increase aid to Israel, Egypt, and Eastern Europe, while limiting development aid to Africa to such bilateral aid as individual states may qualify for under his guidelines.
The cost of emergency relief to Africa has been running at more than twice that of development aid. Long-term development which promotes food security can help avoid even greater relief costs in the future. But such arguments will have weight in Washington only if members of Congress hear them loudly from their constitutents.