| UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA - AFRICAN STUDIES CENTER |
ABIDJAN, 20 October 1999 (IRIN) - The outcome of the second round of Niger's presidential elections, due on 24 November, is anyone's guess. What is certain, analysts say, is that enormous economic and social challenges await the victor.
Squeezed by budgetary problems resulting from a US $1.3-billion debt, the uranium-rich nation has been driven deeper into poverty by frequent coups. In the last two years, up to 40,000 public employees have been on strike, intermittently, some up demanding to 11 months back pay. In February and early October, late salaries led to army mutinies in several towns. Students have also taken to the streets protesting the non-payment of stipends.
Uranium sales, the principal source of state revenue, have shrunk because of plunging world-market prices. The government has thus had to rely on customs levies to fill state coffers.
An interventionist military has only worsened matters and regional analyst Ukowa Ukiwe sees the taming of the military as a priority for the incoming civilian administration.
Ukiwe, who heads the private Centre for Advance Social Sciences in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, told IRIN the incoming civilian leaders in Niger needed to seek moral support from Nigeria's civilian government in ensuring that the military are kept at bay.
"The sooner the new civilian regime seeks support from Obasanjo's administration, the better," Ukiwe said.
Abuja highlighted its rejection of an interventionist military last week by being, perhaps, the first to condemn - in the strongest possible terms - the recent coup in Pakistan, with which it immediately severed military cooperation. In the event of an attempt by the military to return to power in Niger, Nigeria could use its clout to mobilise international public opinion to show its zero tolerance for military governments.
Nigeria would have more leverage against a military government in Niamey, given the considerable links between the two countries. For example, Nigeria provides electricity to Niger and is also the main market for livestock from its northern neighbour.
Bala Mohammad, of the Social Advocacy group in Sokoto, a northern Nigerian city close to the border with Niger, told IRIN there were tremendous cultural, linguistic and lifestyle similarities with Niger, in addition to strong business links. With a stable democracy in Niger, he said, Nigerian business could establish operations there.
"Niger depends on Nigeria for its basic commodities, many of which are produced in Nigeria," Mohammad said.
Military officials in Niger recognise Nigeria's importance to their country. Soon after taking office in April this year, Niger's military leader, Major Daouda Mallam Wanke, visited Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to outline his plans for a return to constitutional rule.
Ukiwe suggested that the new leader in Niger should act as Obasanjo did with his military by retiring every soldier who has held political office. The incoming president should also seek the political support of all democratic nations in the subregion, and craft new relations with Libya, which has been remotely associated with coups in the country.
Once the political arena is stabilised, Ukiwe said, the new government must aggressively seek direct foreign investment. Niger's uranium can only be harnessed by external private initiative, he said, because the country's private capital was too weak. "Capital can come from Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa, especially the last two which have experience in mining," he said.
However, private investors will need legislation that guarantees the repatriation of their profits. The legal framework should be such that it is unambiguous on the need for open, transparent bidding for contracts. Otherwise, Ukiwe said, foreign companies would side with insurrectionary groups in order to get access to solid mineral deposits.
"This has been a factor in Sierra Leone, Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo," he said.
The introduction of private capital would strengthen government's ability to care for social needs and, in this way, encompass all ethnic groups into various aspects of political and economic life.
The expected improvements in living standards for all groups, Ukiwe said, and their feeling of inclusion would then deprive the military of the opportunity of using ethnic polarisation as an excuse for seizing power.
Moumouni Djermakoye, one of the unsuccessful candidates in the first round of the presidential polls, told Radio France Internationale (RFI) last Thursday that Niger's authorities needed to work with "friendly countries" to overcome political instability.
Commenting on the constitutional provision of amnesty for people involved in coups staged in 1996 and 1999, he said "the law would finally determine on a case-by-case basis the type of coups that need to be forgiven, which of the coup leaders should be forgiven".
Dealing with this and other burning issues will be the responsibility of one of the two candidates who made it past Sunday's first round: Mamadou Tandja of the Mouvement national de la societe de developpement and Mohammadou Issoufou of the Parti nigerien pour la democratie et le socialisme.
[ENDS]
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Item: irin-english-1811
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Copyright (c) UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 1999
Subscriber: afriweb@sas.upenn.edu Keyword: IRIN
Editor: Ali B. Ali-Dinar
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