| UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA - AFRICAN STUDIES CENTER |
/* Written by gmurzi in igc:mideast.forum */
/* ---------- "Algeria: An Impending Complex Emerg" ---------- */
ALGERIA: AN IMPENDING COMPLEX EMERGENCY?
In a speech delivered during the second week of June, President Clinton evaluated the likelihood of civil conflict in Middle Eastern and North African countries. "17% of the 22 Muslim states have falling incomes," he observed. "70% of Muslims are young people.... The potential for explosion is great."
The burning of schools; the abduction of foreigners; the terror spread among innocent civilians: since 1992, such instances of sporadic violence have been gaining in frequency, further destabilising the already tense socio-political climate, and slowly drawing Algeria closer to the brink of civil war. In order to understand the nature of the present political turbulence as well as its potential to culminate in outright civil conflict, we may turn to Algeria's recent history and observe the interaction of political and socio-economic factors in determining the progression of events.
After a prolonged struggle to liberate itself from French colonial rule, Algeria was recognized as an independent state in 1962. However, despite the intentions of a small elite to emulate the democratic conventions of the West, power was soon concentrated in the hands of a military-backed regime which instituted a planned economy and one-party rule. Such a course of events reflects the histories of many Third World states attempting to create viable governments in the wake of independence. Although parliamentary government was the ultimate goal toward which Britain and France encouraged their former colonies, this ideal was rarely realized. Due to the twin problems of a) a lack of experience in the actual practice of parliamentary procedure as well as b) a sometimes profound disillusionment with the traditions of the West, certain post-colonial states lapsed almost immediately into dictatorship. Thus, we may trace the seeds of the present discontent to the 1960's, when majority rule remained an all too elusive objective.
The ascendance of the military government had economic as well as political repercussions. Although the regime intended to strengthen Algeria's financial position through encouraging intensive development, its policies of forced industrialization and centralized planning hindered economic growth and ultimately plunged the country into a state of chronic recession. By the late 1980's, popular dissatisfaction with the government had reached an all-time high. Attempting to placate the populace, a more liberal president pledged to implement democratic reforms which would ideally resolve pervasive problems such as unemployment and inflation.
However, it was the Islamic Salvation Front which won the support of many Algerians with its promises to institute an entirely new form of rule, rooted in ancient tradition. For years, the anger of many Algerians had been slowly simmering over widespread poverty and unemployment, the growing gulf between rich and poor, inadequate government services, political corruption, perceived government subservience to American or French demands, and the hedonistic or European lifestyles of the well-to- do. As a result, the Algerians placed their hopes of reform with neo- traditionalist movements such as the FIS, which promised a return to core religious values, good government, and a higher level of moral life, while putting Muslims in touch with their illustrious past.
Despite widespread endorsement in the 1992 elections, the Islamic Salvation Front was never allowed to succeed the military regime. Although officially disbanded by the military government, the FIS has decried the unjustness of its treatment and vowed to struggle for legitimate recognition. The present hostilities are a direct result of the military government's refusal to concede power to its political rivals.
Over the past two years, the situation in Algeria has deteriorated severely. Due to escalating economic difficulties, popular opinion has turned even more in favour of the banned FIS. According to media sources, nearly 1.4 million out of Algeria's 5.3 million labour force are unemployed. Since the elections, the unemployment rate has risen by approximately 32%, further decreasing one's prospect of acquiring an occupation in the foreseeable future.
Struggling to deal with deep-rooted political and economic difficulties, Algeria appears to be a prime example of a troubled Arab state. Stemming from at least the 1960's, a cycle of political repression and economic marginalisation has mitigated against the formation of a strong, unified nation-state. Ultimately, Algeria will have to address the interrelated problems of governmental intransigence and socio-economic discontent before it successfully overcomes the threat of organized violent rebellion.
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