EMERGENCIES UNIT FOR

ETHIOPIA (UN-EUE)

DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

Field Trip to South and North Welo Zones of Amhara Region

7 - 17 November 1995

Prepared by Hans Spiess, UN Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia Field Officer, 27 November 1995

1. Introduction

In order to obtain more information about the current situation in the highland weredas of South and North Welo, three weredas of South Welo zone and five weredas of North Welo zones were visited during this field trip.

According to reports, some highland weredas of South and North Welo zones are still experiencing serious conditions, despite the approaching harvest. During discussions with local authorities and Non-Governmental Organisations working in the area, irregular distribution as well as early stopping of the kiremt rains were given as the most important factor of expected reduced crop yield. Localised hailstorms and flooding as well as Welo Bush Cricket infestations were also stated as negative factors affecting the outcome of the harvest. Finally, soil degradation and over-population were mentioned as root causes for poor harvest conditions over the past years.

Although the kiremt rains started late, up to the beginning of September the prospects for a good harvest looked promising. However, the rains did not continue until the end of September during the flowering stage of the main crops.

Migration was reported to some extent in all visited weredas. However, it is not easy to determine where the line is drawn between traditional and stress migration. It is also very difficult for the wereda administrations to keep a record of migration movements. However, during the registration for the wereda elections in one wereda (Sayint, South Welo zone), it was noticed that many houses were locked up and entire families had moved away.

At the time of the visit many migrants were moving to the Raya and Kobo plains, where the sorghum harvest is providing daily labour opportunities, or to the bigger towns along the main roads, and the state farm areas in Afar Region. On the other hand, migrants that plan to stay away for a longer period are moving to the coffee producing areas in southern Ethiopia as well as to the former resettlement sites in Southwestern Ethiopia.

Overall, although a better harvest is expected for the region as a whole as compared to last year, the situation is rather bleak in the visited weredas, where food distributions are currently ongoing and/or further distributions will have to take place at least until the end of December.

2. SOUTH WELO ZONE

2.1. General situation

A pre-harvest assessment was carried out by the zonal early warning committee at the beginning of September, when most of the highland and mid-highland crops (barley, wheat and teff) were in the flowering stage. The findings were formulated under the assumption that good rains would continue up to the end of September or the beginning of October. Since this did not happen, the heads of the zonal bureaux of the Commission for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (CDPP) and the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) concluded that the pre-harvest assessment can not be taken as a reliable source in determining the projected outcome of the meher harvest. A reduced crop production due to the early cessation of the kiremt rains is therefore expected.

Taking into account the current conditions of the highland weredas, the zonal CDPP Bureau indicated that 400,000 - 500,000 persons may be dependent on food aid at least for the first half of 1996.

The worst affected weredas remain Mekdela, Tenta and Legehida, followed by Debre Sina, Sayint and Wegedi.

2.2. Relief activities

Save the Children /UK (SCF/UK) will continue supplying Debre Sina, Sayint and Wegedi weredas with relief food for the months of November and December. Due to limited, resources the number of beneficiaries (131,700 to 91,000) and the ration size (15 kg to 12.5 kg) will be reduced.

The Ethiopian Red Cross Society and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ERCS/IFRC) will continue to assist monthly 40,000 beneficiaries in Tenta wereda for the months of November and December. Whether the organization will continue its operation in 1996 is not yet decided.

In November, the zonal CDPP bureau planned to distribute 15 kg rations for around 100,000 persons in the weredas of Kalu (13,167 beneficiaries), Mekdela (40,000), Were Ilu (11,587), Jama (10,000), Legehida (11,934) and Kelala (17,120).

2.3. Wereda visits

MEKDELA: In this wereda heavy rains negatively affected wheat and barley cultivated in 18 highland and mid-highland kebeles at the end of July. An assessment carried out after the Ethiopian New Year revealed that in some parts of the wereda up to 80 percent of the cultivated area was damaged. The farmers have partially replaced the damaged fields with teff, which is expected to give only a reduced yield due to the early withdrawal of rains. The wereda Administration has also requested chick peas from the zonal Bureau of Agriculture; however, this request has not been met.

Infestations of the Welo Bush Cricket started in September, but have been controlled with cultural/traditional methods as well as the application of chemicals. According to the Bureau of Agriculture, no major outbreaks of animal diseases have been reported so far this year and the conditions of the livestock are considered satisfactory.

Relief food distributions for 35,000 beneficiaries were last carried out in the month of August by the zonal CDPP Bureau. Another distribution will take place in November for 40,000 beneficiaries.

Although the harvesting of teff has already started, the price for one quintal is still about Birr 280 in the wereda main town of Masha. Since the farmers have the tendency of not selling on the market, teff is brought in by traders from Dessie.

TENTA: Tenta wereda is located to the east of Mekdela wereda, with a generally similar situation. The belg crop production in the wereda was minimal as the belg rains had started at the end of March and lasted only up to mid-April. As in the neighbouring wereda of Mekdela, heavy rains occurred in July and early August but stopped at the beginning of September; this is expected to seriously affect the yield. Also, it is anticipated that the presence of stalkborers on the sorghum cultivations in the lowland and Welo Bush Crickets on other crops will further reduce crop yields.

The wereda Bureau of Agricultural expects the overall crop production to be lower than last year. Not only the irregular distribution of the rains but also overpopulation - particularly in the highland areas - are seen as factors contributing to food deficiency in the wereda. On the agricultural side, fertiliser is scarcely used.

The ERCS/IFRC will continue food distribution to 40,000 beneficiaries until the end of the year. Earlier in May and June, the RRB was distributing rations for an additional 15,000 beneficiaries in order to alleviate the conditions. No decision has been taken yet by the Red Cross as to whether they will continue their operation in 1996.

As in Masha, market prices in Adjibar town are still extremely high (teff is Birr 288 and wheat is Birr 262 per quintal).

SAYINT: The rainfall pattern in this wereda is similar to that of Mekdela and Tenta. Heavy mid-season rain with hailstorms and the early stopping in mid-September are expected to reduce the wereda's crop production considerably.

Migration is more an issue of concern in this wereda. Although the wereda Administration is not able to keep records of the migratory movements, they anticipate that already a considerable number of people have left the wereda due to food shortages. Also, during registrations for wereda elections, it was noticed that many houses were locked up. The Administration assumes that entire families have moved to the resettlement areas in the western part of the country or the coffee producing areas of southern Ethiopia.

SCF/UK has been supplied food for 51,000 beneficiaries in this wereda over the past months. The operation was to scale down, but given the persistently difficult situation at the present time, SCF/UK is providing relief food supplies to 31,000 beneficiaries for the months of November and December. Due to limited resources, and in order to reach more beneficiaries, the ration-size will be reduced from 15 kg to 12.5 kg per person.

3. NORTH WELO ZONE

The highland weredas of North Welo zone show a similar pattern to that of the adjacent areas in South Welo zone. Shortage of rain, hail and flooding as well as plant pests will reduce the crop production. Neither the CDPP Bureau nor the zonal Bureau of Agriculture are currently commenting on the outcome of the harvest and the number of potential food aid beneficiaries for the coming year, and only the harvest assessment to be carried out in December would reveal precise information.

The head of the zonal CDPP Bureau pointed out that it would be short-sighted to only look at the crop production in order to determine how many people would need food for the coming year. He mentioned that although this year's meher harvest may be better than last year, this would not necessarily mean that the population in the affected areas will do better. Due to consecutive bad harvests over the past two years, many were forced to sell household goods and other important assets; large segments of the population continue living in dire circumstances. It was also mentioned that problems with the NGO pipelines have sometimes resulted in only sporadic food distributions taking place, which further aggravates the conditions.

SCF/UK is responding to an urgent appeal by the zonal and regional bureaux for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) to immediately supply the highland weredas of Delanta and Wadla with food rations for 31,700 and 49,175 beneficiaries respectively. This assistance has had to be delivered without delay in order to avoid large scale stress migration.

3.1. Relief activities

At the time of the visit, food distributions by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church/Joint Relief Partnership (EOC/JRP) were ongoing in the weredas of Meket, Gidan and Bugna, whereas CDPP and SCF/UK were trying to provide food assistance as quickly as possible to Delanta and Wadla weredas. EOC/JRP, who have experienced pipeline problems over the past months, was able to secure food from the Emergency Food Security Reserve (EFSR) against a pledge from the European Union (EU) and is now in a position to resume distributions.

3.2. Wereda visits

DELANTA and WADLA: Both weredas have areas of concern to the zonal CDPP Bureau from the beginning of the year, and consecutive poor harvests have left their trace in these weredas. The highland parts of the weredas are apparently the worst affected. The CDPP allocated food to these weredas as early as January when reports from the local administrations indicated that large groups were ready to migrate. A poor belg season and irregular kiremt rains contributed to further aggravating the situation. In Delanta feed for the livestock is already scarce according to the representative of the Bureau of Agriculture.

In Wadla the wereda Administrator stated that large groups of inhabitants have left for daily labour in the Kobo areas where the sorghum is being harvested now. Others have moved further away to the south-western parts of the country.

Commenting on the outcome of the harvest, in both weredas it was mentioned that the pre-harvest assessment was conducted too early to adequately indicate the outcome of the season and has left too many open questions; therefore, reliable information could only be obtained once the harvest was over. However, harvest results are expected to be similar to last year's.

GIDAN: This wereda is located in mountainous terrain with large parts of arable land situated on steep hills with degraded soil conditions. Due to this, and irregular rain distribution, the highland areas are more affected than the lowland parts. Welo Bush Cricket infestations have also reduced crop production in the mid-highland and lowland areas. The wereda Administration believes that this year's harvest will definitely be poorer than the previous year's.

The Wereda Drought Committee considers up to 80,000 persons in need of food assistance at the present time. However, at the beginning of 1995 the regional CDPP accepted a quota of 14,400 beneficiaries, which is very low also according to the zonal DPP Bureau. EOC/JRP is the distributing agency in this wereda. At the time of the visit the wereda Administration was expecting the first distribution since July.

Since Gidan wereda is located just west of Kobo wereda, many farmers, particularly the younger ones, are moving to that wereda for daily labour of the sorghum harvest.

At the time of the visit three grinding mills donated by UNICEF were stored in the compound of the wereda Administration, to be shortly installed in the rural areas.

BUGNA: The physical conditions in this wereda, with its wereda main town of Lalibela, are the same as in Gidan wereda. Rainfall distribution was promising at the beginning of the kiremt rainy season. However, early cessation of the rains and Welo Bush Cricket infestations reduced expectations of a good harvest. In addition, soil degradation and overpopulation were also stated as the contributing factors to chronic food deficiency. The wereda Administration indicates that the situation in the highland areas is expected to be somewhat better as compared to last year, but conditions in the lowland areas are worse this year.

About 37,000 beneficiaries are registered for food assistance by EOC/JRP. Although the distributions were not on a regular basis, the wereda Administrator thinks that the Employment Generation Schemes (EGS) have had positive results. In this wereda emphasis was given to small feeder road construction. Without tool inputs and technical expertise provided by the Dutch development organization SNV the projects could not have been carried out in this manner. As in Gidan wereda, many farmers are currently migrating to Kobo for daily labour.

MEKET: The kiremt rains were good until August and started to withdraw at the beginning of September, a factor that is expected to reduce crop yields. For the wereda Administration it is already a fact that the outcome of the harvest will be poorer than last year. Welo Bush Cricket infestations and hailstorms are other factors that will reduce the crop production.

Another indicator for the serious conditions is the fact that many farmer are taking their cattle to Kobo and Alamata for sale in exchange for purchasing food. One kebele reported that 200 young farmers have left for the eastern lowland areas for daily labour. Many of these would contract malaria and other diseases, and a number of deaths among these migrants have been reported to the wereda Administration.

EOC is carrying out the food distributions in this wereda. In order to distribute the limited food resources effectively to the most neediest, the wereda Administration decided to instigate the following: available food quantities are allocated to the various kebeles, whereas the kebele authorities are in charge of ensuring that the food gets to those who most need it.

4. CONCLUSIONS

The overall prospects of this year's meher harvest are generally considered better than last year. However, the visited area belongs to a belt, stretching from the northern part of North Shewa zone to Wag Hamra zone bordering Tigray Region, and where consecutive poor harvests, erratic rains and irregular rainfall distribution, soil degradation and overpopulation have left these weredas in unfavourable conditions. Therefore, the merits of food aid assistance given in the past is clearly recognised and appreciated. On the other hand, several wereda administrators in the visited areas stressed the fact that at the present time regional and central authorities are the main bodies determining the number of people in need of assistance based on the outcome of the harvest.

The introduction of new agricultural techniques, improved seeds and use of fertiliser is only applicable in areas with reasonable soil conditions. In the visited weredas, enthusiasm in using fertiliser is diminishing as farmers in drought prone areas do not see any advantage in selling half of their already poor harvest in order to pay back the credit for fertiliser.

In Bugna wereda, the Administrator believes that with all the improved agricultural inputs (improved seed, fertiliser, etc.) and favourable rainfall, crop productivity could be increased to a certain extent. However, he sees soil degradation and over-population as the main reasons for the wereda's permanent food deficit. He appreciates the food aid delivered to the wereda, but feels this alone could not be sufficient to take the wereda's population out of the dependency syndrome. He suggested that solutions have to be sought which are not only linked to the agricultural sector.

Other areas of concern are the crop assessment missions by the central CDPP and FAO\WFP. Some local authorities feel that numbers of people needing food assistance should only be determined after the harvest period is completed. According to them, December/January would be a more appropriate time to carry out crop assessments.

30 November, 1995

UN-EUE Tel.: (251) (1) 51-10-28/29

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Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email:UNEUE@padis.gn.apc.org

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