Region 3 (North Shewa, Oromiya, North and South Welo Zones

January 17 - 27, 1995

Hans Spiess, Field Officer

INTRODUCTION

A field trip was undertaken with the following objectives:

- to gather information about the general conditions in the zones visited;

- to compare the figures of populations in need of food assistance released in the 1995 RRC Appeal with those available in the zones after the latest crop assessments;

- to inquire about planned Food-for-Work activities as stipulated in the new national policy; and

- to inquire into which NGOs will be involved in relief/FFW food distributions in the various zones.

1. REGION 3 (EXCLUDING NORTH AND SOUTH GONDER ZONES)

At the time of the visit, the Relief and Rehabilitation Bureau and the Ministry of Agriculture representatives in all the visited zones were engaged in assessing general conditions in the area following the Meher harvest. For the zonal RRBs, the aim of the assessments was to inform the regional Bureaux of changes in the population requiring food assistance in 1995.

The Kiremt rains, which were extensive in some areas, damaged some crops through water-logging, flooding and hailstorms. As a consequence, even though the main harvest has just taken place, food availability in various weredas in the Region is already low and the nutritional status of the population is already deteriorating. The zonal RRBs have already received requests for immediate emergency food distributions in a number of weredas.

The Ethiopian Red Cross Society, together with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ERCS/IFRC) and Save the Children Fund (SCF/UK) are preparing to commence distributions in four weredas of South Welo zone during February. The Joint Relief Partnership (JRP) will also resume distributions in North Welo zone during this month, if the guidelines for FFW activities are available.

In Belg-producing areas, local peasants are hoping for better Belg rains this year. Should this not be the case the RRBs of North Shewa and South and North Welo zones expect an increased number of people in need of assistance after June 1995.

1.1. North Shewa Zone

Post-harvest crop assessments were ongoing in North Shewa zone towards the end of January, but were expected to be completed by the end of the month. So far, five weredas that experienced a poor Belg harvest in 1994 and low Meher production due to heavy rainfall and water-logging, have been identified as food deficient. They are located in remote areas and their permanent monitoring is difficult due to logistical constraints.

In North Shewa, the figures of the 1995 RRC Appeal (64,100) differ considerably from the recent figures released by the zonal RRB in Debre Birhan (138,332). Following the reporting of the zonal figures to the regional RRB in Bahir Dar, the latter has already agreed to a quota of 78,716 for North Shewa zone (for details see annex).

The programming of FFW activities was done by the local communities in cooperation with the zonal RRB and line ministries. The proposals prepared as a result of these consultations were sent to the regional RRB for approval.

According to the RRB in Debre Birhan, it has not yet been decided whether NGOs would be involved in food distributions. World Vision International (WVI) is currently operating a rural integrated development project in Gishe wereda. Discussions between the zonal RRB and WVI are undeway concerning a continued involvement in relief food distributions in the area.

1.2. Oromiya Zone

The setting up of zonal bureaux in the newly established Oromiya zone is still under process. A zonal RRB representative was appointed in December 1994.

According to the zonal administration, the outlook for 1995 regarding food availability seems to be rather dismal. Four of the five weredas in the zone are considered food deficient. Bati wereda is already experiencing severe shortages and the wereda administration has already requested immediate food aid for 39,000 beneficiaries. The request was passed on to the regional RRB. Insufficient rainfall in the areas bordering Region 2 (Afar) and water-logging and flood damage in the Cheffa valley as well as pests infestation were the stated reasons for these unfavorable conditions.

The total affected population in need of food assistance in 1995 is estimated at 252,739 by the zonal administration; this is almost three times more than the 1995 RRC Appeal (see annex for details).

According to the Government's National Policy for Disaster Prevention and Management, food for work projects are to be reviewed by RRB together with its counterpart line ministries, but no concrete proposals have been worked out by the bureaux as yet.

WVI is the only major NGO operating in Oromyia zone. They are involved in rural integrated development projects and no agreement to include them in general food distributions has been reached yet.

1.3. South Welo Zone

South Welo zone will need close attention in the coming months. The Belg-dependant areas of the zone had very low production last year and the main harvest was considerably reduced by floods, water-logging and hailstorms. Sorghum and millet crops were particularly damaged. The zonal RRB has separated the weredas which are Belg-dependent and need food assistance from January up to June 1995 (6 months) from weredas which had such poor crops in 1994 that they would need continued assistance throughout 1995 (12 months). Among these, Tenta, Mekdela and Lege Ambo weredas are already facing critical conditions with reports of stress migration and distorted markets. Were Ilu at present seems to be the only wereda in the zone with no reported food shortages (calculations based on 1.8 quintals/person/year).

The 1995 RRC Appeal listed 359,300 persons in need of food assistance in South Welo zone. The zonal RRB estimates that 391,629 persons will require relief food for six months in the Belg producing areas and 199,625 persons throughout 1995. Should the Belg rains also fail this year the number of affected people is expected to increase to above 750,000 after June 1995 (see annex for details).

Proposals for FFW projects designed by the local communities were to be discussed at the zonal level at the end of January. Unless quick action is taken on this subject, there is concern that a deterioration of the nutritional conditions of the affected groups may effect the starting of any planned activity.

In South Welo, at the present time two NGOs will be involved in relief distributions. The ERCS/IFRC plan to continue their operation in Tenta wereda in February. Due to the prevailing conditions, they will provide emergency food to about 40,000 beneficiaries (doubled from last year's target). SCF (UK) will assist 80,000 beneficiaries in the three weredas of Lege Ambo, Mekdela and Kelala through the RRB and wereda administrations. CONCERN will also continue its development activities in Kalu wereda and for the time being has no plans for general relief distributions.

1.4. North Welo Zone

After the almost complete failure of the 1994 Belg season, there was a relatively good Meher harvest in the lowland areas. In the highland areas soil degradation, poor soil fertility as well as pests such as armyworms, Striga, rodents and weevils also accounted for considerable crop losses. Both the regional RRB and MoA offices agree that Delanta, Dawnt, Meket, Gidan, Bugna and Wadla are weredas that will need prioritised attention in food assistance.

The regional RRB's allocation of food assistance (237,875) in the six worst affected weredas already exceeds the figure of the 1995 RRC Appeal for the entire zone (190,300). The regional RRB is aware that in the case of poor Belg rains the number of people to be assisted could reach over 400,000 after June 1995 (see annex for details).

FFW proposals were expected to be finalized by the end of January at the zonal level by the RRB and its partner line ministries. The activities under this programme would be designed according to the specific needs of each wereda resulting in viable projects.

The NGOs working in the area are also reviewing their activities. JRP will resume its operations in North Welo zone as soon as the FFW projects are ready for implementation, whereas CONCERN has stopped relief activities in North Welo zone for the time being.

1.5. Wag Hamra Zone

Wag Hamra zone was not visited during this field trip. The RRB in North Welo mentioned however that the RRB in Sekota estimates the number of people requiring assistance at 170,000 compared to the figure of 97,400 in the 1995 RRC Appeal.

2. REGION 1 (TIGRAY)

The general conditions in Tigray are now considerably better than the situation early last year. The concerned bodies operating in the region (the RRB, MoA and the wereda drought preparedness committees), were undertaking post-harvest assessments in January in order to have the necessary information needed for preparation of action plans for 1995. According to the regional RRB and MoA, the Eastern zone will be the most affected this year, followed by the Southern zone. In the Central zone, severe problems are expected in different weredas in the former Adwa and Tembien awrajas and certain pocket areas in the former Axum awraja. The Western zone seems to be in better circumstances, except in the area of Dima wereda (Simien Mountains), where the RRB has already received a request to immediately provide emergency food for 6,000 to 8,000 beneficiaries.

Following recent harvest assessments, it was concluded that the massive armyworm outbreak in the middle of last year has not had such a negative impact on the overall crop production. However, pest infestation, together with water-logging, hailstorms and the early withdrawal of the Kiremt rains, have been the reasons for a reduced yield. In pocket areas, pest infestations continued for some time. In November, the Eastern and Southern zones reported outbreaks of rinderpest, which was then effectively controlled by the MoA. The veterinary section of the MoA cites poor veterinary services in Region 2 (Afar) and North Welo zone as the cause of spread of this disease.

The difference between the figures of populations in need of assistance released in the 1995 RRC Appeal and the regional RRB and administration in Tigray is moderate:

Zone: Regional figures: 1995 RRC Appeal:

Western zone 15,000 14,300

Central zone 200,000 179,400

Eastern zone 385,000 343,800

Southern zone* 250,000 226,500

TOTAL 850,000 764,000

* inclu. Mekelle sub-zone

Regional figures were decided by the administration of Region 1 and the regional RRB based on the latest crop assessments carried out by local committees.

The FFW project proposals, designed by the local communities in cooperation with the RRB and line ministries, include activities such as soil and water conservation, terracing, road maintenance and construction as well as the rehabilitation of schools and clinics. Proposals for each wereda were submitted to the National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee in Addis Ababa for approval and should be ready for implementation following their review.

In Tigray, very little food distribution was taking place in January. REST was distributing rations to 17,000 displaced persons in Adigrat during the third week of January. In the Western zone, around 10,000 beneficiaries were also to receive food from REST at the end of January but without FFW involvement. Due to the absence of the REST representatives in the areas visited during the trip, no information concerning the distribution plan for the Eastern, Central and Western zones in the first quarter could be obtained.

The Adigrat Catholic Secretariat/JRP is expecting instructions from the regional RRB on the locations of distribution sites in the Southern zone and the implementation strategies to be used for FFW activities. ERCS/IFRC were preparing distributions and FFW projects in the three weredas of Adi Gudom, Wajirat and Hintalo. They will resume operations in February.

2.1. Central Zone

Not much information could be collected in Axum as the relevant contacts were absent. However, according to a staff member of the MoA the situation is much better than last year at the same time. There are pocket areas which had a poor production due to water-logging or due to the early withdrawal of the Kiremt rains. The armyworm outbreak did not have a major impact on the outcome of the harvest.

The number of people in need of assistance in the Central zone has been estimated at 200,000 by the regional authorities. This figure does not differ much from that which was stated in the 1995 RRC Appeal (see annex for details).

REST is the only relief food distributor in the Central zone but their distribution plan was not available at the time of the visit.

2.2. Eastern Zone

Belg crop production is minimal in the Eastern zone since only some tabias[31] of four weredas located in the eastern part of the zone are cultivating crops during this season. The overall crop production of the zone in 1994 is estimated to last for about six months. Even when there are good climatic conditions the zone suffers from soil degradation and overpopulation (the MoA estimates the average landholding per household at 0.25 - 0.5 hectare).

It was also observed that livestock was suffering from a Rinderpest outbreak of two months ago; control measures were underway and were to be finished by the middle of January.

The Eastern zone has high population in need of food assistance (350,000 - 400,000 persons, including displaced; see annex for details). The estimated long-term distribution plan for 1995 worked out by the zonal RRB is as follows:

1st quarter: 2nd quarter: 3rd quarter: 4th quarter:

213,600 284,800 356,000 213,600

(60%) (80%) (100%) (60%)

REST is the only relief food distribution agency in the zone. A detailed distribution plan for the first quarter was not available.

At the time of the visit, 17,000 displaced persons (the majority of them ex-Eritrea) were receiving food rations provided by REST. Unofficial sources mentioned a number of up to 22,000 displaced in and around Adigrat, which is a contradiction of the 508 persons stated in the regional RRB breakdown.

2.3. Western Zone

According to the zonal MoA the situation in the Western zone has improved in comparison to a year ago, but recent crop assessments showed a significant reduction from the estimated figures of the pre-harvest assessments.

Evaluation at the end of August 1994:

Expected crop production: 3,831,212 quintals

Evaluation in December/January 1995:

Estimated crop production: 2,868,070 quintals

Three factors were mentioned as reasons for a reduced production:

1) water-logging

2) armyworm infestation

3) poor management (untimely sewing, weeding, etc.)

Water-logging particularly affected the high yield teff "cross 37" variety, where the yield dropped in many places under two quintals per hectare.

There is only a slight difference between the 1995 RRC Appeal (14,300) and the figures provided by the regional RRB and the Administration (15,000). According to the regional assessment, the Western zone has more people in need of assistance due to man-made problems. The REST representative confirmed that Dima wereda is already facing serious shortages and that 6,000 - 8,000 persons need immediate food assistance (see annex for details).

REST had started food distributions to approx. 10,000 beneficiaries at the end of January.

Neither REST nor the zonal MoA knew much about the implementation of FFW schemes in the zone. They were still waiting for instructions from Mekelle.

2.4. Southern Zone

The most affected areas in the zone are the three lowland weredas of Alamata, Chercher, Mehoni as well as Wefla wereda (Korem). The sudden importance of Wefla wereda is explained by the fact that in the previous year no relevant studies regarding crop conditions were available. Overpopulation seems to be another important factor.

The most recent list concerning the drought-affected figures established by the zonal RRB mentions 222,000 affected persons (including sub-zone Mekelle). From the above number of 195,000 drought-affected (excluding sub-zone Mekelle) 60 percent should receive food assistance in the first quarter, 80 percent in the second quarter, 100 percent in the third quarter and again 60 percent in the fourth quarter of 1995 (see annex for details).

The zone has not yet received clear guidelines for the implementation of FFW activities. However, 333 small-scale FFW schemes are ready for implementation.

JRP and ERCS/IFRC are the relief food agencies in the zone and plan to resume distributions in February.

The zonal RRB is trying to push JRP to establish a distribution centre in Chercher. Up to last year the beneficiaries in this wereda had to travel to Alamata town to receive food rations. The same applies for Samre and Saharti weredas, where the beneficiaries lost up to five days by taking the food in Mekelle.

ANNEX TO FIELD TRIP REPORT TO REGION 3

(WITHOUT NORTH AND SOUTH GONDER ZONES)

1. REGION 3 (AMHARA)

1.1. North Shewa Zone

Affected population for 1995 in North Shewa zone following the latest assessments (still not completed at the end of January) on zonal and wereda level:

** The zonal RRB will revise the figure of Gishe wereda after the latest information coming from the wereda.

Affected population according to 1995 RRC appeal: 64,100

Quota given by regional RRB for North Shewa zone: 78,716

1.2. Oromiya Zone

Affected population for 1995 in Oromiya zone following the latest assessments (December/January) at the zonal and wereda level:

Affected Population according to 1995 RRC Appeal: 94,000

Quota given by the Regional RRB for Oromiya zone: 175,430

1.3. South Welo Zone

Breakdown of drought-affected populations per wereda in South Welo zone according to assessments carried out by the zonal RRB and quota given by the regional RRB. The zonal RRB in Dessie has separated the weredas which are Belg dependent and need assistance from January up to June 1995 (6 months) from the weredas which had insufficient crop production from the l994 Meher season and need assistance throughout 1995 (12 months).

** Total number of drought-affected in the

Belg and Meher producing areas: 591,254

Affected population according to 1995 RRC Appeal: 359,300

Quota given by the regional RRB for South Welo zone: 449,988

Estimated number of drought-affected in South Welo

zone after June 1995 if the Belg rains fail: 767,240

1.4. North Welo Zone

Affected population in North Welo zone after the latest assessments (December/January) by the zonal RRB and MoA per wereda as well as the quota given by the regional RRB:

Affected population according to the 1995 RRC Appeal: 190,300

In case of failure of Belg rainy season the regional RRB is already informed that the number of people to be assisted after June 1995 may reach over 400,000.

1.5. Wag Hamra Zone (not visited)

Affected population according to the 1995 RRC Appeal: 97,400

Affected population according to the zonal RRB in

Sekota: 170,000

(Information obtained by the former RRB representative

of North Welo zone)

2. REGION 1 (TIGRAY)

The following tables indicate the of population to be assisted in 1995 given according to the regional RRB and administration.

Except for the Southern zone, the figures for populations affected due to natural and man-made problems are separated:

2.1. Central Zone

Affected population according to regional assessment: 200,000

Affected population according to 1995 RRC appeal: 179,400

2.2. Eastern Zone

Affected population according to regional assessment: 385,004

Affected population according to 1995 RRC appeal: 343,800

2.3. Western Zone

Affected population according to 1995 RRC appeal: 14,300

Affected population according to regional assessment: 15,000

2.4. Southern Zone (includ. Sub-zone Mekelle)

For the Southern zone the separation of drought-affected and man-made victims was not made. However the zonal RRB has established its own list following the latest assessment which is presently lower than the figures released by the regional RRB.

Affected population according to 1995 RRC appeal: 226,500

NOTE:

Regional figures are tentative and no attempt was made during the trip to verify numbers or assessments.