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THIS REPORT CONTAINS A MAP OF THE AWASH FLOODS AREA
EMERGENCIES UNIT FOR ETHIOPIA (UNDP-EUE) DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT FOR ETHIOPIA - AUGUST 1996
Prepared by the Information Section of the UNDP Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia from information provided by UN and NGOs
HIGHLIGHTS
Rains in July and August continued to be above average, particularly over the central and western portions of the country. The area cultivated for the current meher (main) season is reported to be about the same or slightly greater than that of last year.
As many as 30,000 people may have been affected by the floods in the Gambella Region and a higher number in the Awash basin. An international appeal for further assistance has not been launched as the situation has remained within the response capacity of national authorities.
Fertiliser distribution for the 1996 agricultural season has been reported at last year's level or slightly higher, a level much lower than the government plan to distribute 392,000 in 1996.
Secondary outbreaks of armyworm still remain a potential threat to this year's meher-crop, although pest control operations on over 84,000 hectares have been successful.
Of the total 75,000 tons that the European Union is purchasing for the Emergency Food Security Reserve (EFSR), so far 36,500 tons have been delivered to EFSR warehouses.
Preparations are still under way for the pilot repatriation of 10,000 Somali refugees from Ethiopia to North-west Somalia.
OVERVIEW
Relief needs and operations
Results of the Government's belg harvest assessment are not yet available but tentative reports based on field visits by donors, UN staff and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) indicate that the current belg-harvest, which has now been completed, is extremely good. Based on provisional figures from zonal departments of agriculture, the Famine Early Warning System/European Union Food Security Unit have estimated that the 1996 belg-harvest may be some 18% higher than the previous year (1995 cropping season). With a good belg harvest now at hand, and food-aid pledges at a very comfortable level, national availability of food in Ethiopia would seem satisfactory.
On the other hand, heavy rains in the past few months have made food pre-positioning and distributions difficult in some traditionally food deficit areas like Wag Hamra zone in the north-eastern highlands (Amhara Region). Close monitoring will be required in these areas as well as those parts of the country where excessive rains may have affected the main harvest. Continuous rainfall in western Ethiopia and the eastern highlands also resulted in widespread floods in the past few months.
Relief operations are still ongoing, coordinated by the National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee1.
Despite good national food availability after the belg harvest, access to food remains an issue of concern for perhaps some 2-3 million vulnerable people in Ethiopia. Relief food distributions are therefore likely to be needed in parts of Tigray Region, Gonder and Welo zones (Amhara Region) and Welayita area (Southern Nations, Nationalities, Peoples Regional State) throughout the rest of the year.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Experts meeting and launch of the revitalised IGAD2
It is now anticipated that consultations will take place in Addis Ababa from 9 September to review and refine the project profiles previously presented to the donor community by IGAD. Participants will include members of the IGAD Secretariat, experts from IGAD member states and international partners. A tentative date has also been set for the official launching of the revitalised IGAD, now expected to take place 25-26 November 1996 in Djibouti.
AGRICULTURE
Current season and meher harvest prospects
Rains in July and August continued to be above average, particularly over the central and western portions of the country. The area cultivated for the current meher (main) season is reported to be about the same or slightly greater than that of last year3.
Despite this generally favourable picture, the abnormally heavy main season kiremt rains have delayed planting, damaged standing crops and caused waterlogging, affecting crop performance in some of the main production areas of Ethiopia, including central parts of the Oromiya Region. Save the Children (UK) reports that long-maturing maize has been badly affected by excess rainfall in the traditionally food insecure and famine prone highlands and western lowlands of Welayita area in North Omo zone (SNNPRS), resulting in a general failure of this crop. However, it is too early to conclude whether such damage is localised or likely to have a substantial effect on the national meher harvest. Although the level of water and pasture quality has been generally favourable in the agro-pastoral areas, abundant rains caused have caused serious waterlogging in some areas of Borena zone (Oromiya Region).
Pest infestations
The incidence of pest infestations has generally been higher this year in the eastern parts of the country. However, the Desert Locust Control Operation/Eastern Africa and regional bureaux have mobilised resources to combat outbreaks of armyworm and Quelea birds in the past months. Reports from the regional bureaus of agriculture indicate that pests have not caused serious damage to crops currently in the field and infestation on many hectares of farmland has been controlled.
Fertiliser update
As at the end of August, fertiliser availability for the 1996 agricultural season amounts to over 471,000 tons (including 1996 procurement of 410,000 tons and 1995 carry over stocks amounting to 61,000 tons).
The Government estimates that about 470,000 tons of fertiliser will be required in Ethiopia during 1997. Of this amount, so far 100,000 tons has been earmarked by the Government and 100,000 tons has been pledged by the Government of Germany. Carry over stocks into 1997 may be as much as 210,000 tons. This, together with 1997 pledges of 200,000, already places fertiliser availability in 1997 at 410,000 tons. The critical issues to be addressed in the coming year will therefore be delivery, subsidy, sales and distribution levels in the regions.
REGIONAL UPDATE
Floods in Oromiya, Afar and Gambella Regions
Unusually heavy rains during a three month period (June-August) caused widespread flooding of the Gilo, Baro and Akobo rivers in the Gambella area of western Ethiopia and in the Awash river basin in the central highlands. In June, local flooding in the middle and lower Awash temporarily displaced several thousands from their homes, to be repeated in late July in the west, when the Baro river over-topped its banks flooding areas of Gambella region, cutting off a number of villages near the Sudanese border and affecting over 17,000 people. The Government subsequently set up a Task Force to coordinate the relief efforts and established relief centres for the displaced in the affected areas. Tents, food, clothing and other relief items were to be pre-positioned at these centres.
An aerial assessment mission to the Gambella area in early August indicated that a major emergency was not imminent. However, it was felt that the situation in the Jikawo area along the Baro river would need to be closely monitored in the coming month (to be undertaken by the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission).
With a deteriorating situation along the Awash river, the National Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Committee was convened to manage a coordinated response to the Awash emergency. Plans were put into effect to pre-position relief and shelter supplies, identify possible evacuation sites and strengthen dikes along the river to protect the cotton and sugar cane plantations.
Away from the Awash basin, sporadic flooding has been reported in Awassa and around Lake Tana, but appears to now be under control of the local community and government officials.
Although accurate figures on the number of people affected over the past few months are not available, as many as 30,000 people may have been affected by the floods in the Gambella region and a higher number in the Awash basin.
As the situation has remained within the response capacity of national authorities, the Government has not issued an international appeal for further assistance. However, if heavy rainfall continues, the situation may deteriorate to a point where as many as 150,000 people along the Awash river basin could be threatened. Donors, the UN and Non-Governmental Organisations are closely monitoring the situation in case additional assistance is required.
FOOD AID AND LOGISTICS
Food aid status
The 1996 relief/regular requirements of grain and pulses for Ethiopia have been increased by the DPPC from 135,000 tons to 152,386 tons.4 However, even with this increase in food aid needs, the pledging situation against relief and regular requirements remains exceptionally good, with pledges amounting to 199,901 tons. Of these pledges 60,303 tons have so far been delivered to Ethiopia. Pledges against the 100,000 tons cereal requirement for the Emergency Food Security Reserve remain at 95,750 tons.
Fertiliser deliveries to ports during the period July-August have been a total of 10,785 tons. As at the end of August, port stocks stand at food aid (8,191 tons in Assab and Djibouti) and fertiliser (6,602 tons in Assab, to be moved by the beginning of September).
Pre-positioning and distribution
Between January and June, the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission and NGOs distributed an estimated 151,960 tons of food to the most food insecure population groups.
Due to the sizable 1995 carry over stocks and good availability of grain in the Emergency Food Security Reserve, the low delivery of 1996 food aid pledges to Ethiopia is not expected to affect availability of food for relief distribution.
1996 local purchase programme
Of the total 75,000 tons that the European Union is purchasing for the Emergency Food Security Reserve (EFSR), so far 36,500 tons have been delivered to EFSR warehouses in Mekele, Kombolcha, Dire Dawa and Shashemane. The rate of delivery has been slower than expected, and delivery of the remaining balance (about 27,000 tons) of the EU local purchase may take another two months.
Should the 1996 meher harvest be favourable, some 94,248 tons of grain could still be procured locally by the end of the year in addition to the ongoing purchases.
Title III programme
An agreement was signed between the governments of the United States and Ethiopia in mid-July for the provision of Title III funds to Ethiopia. The three-year programme is expected to provide $25 million in 1996 for the purchase of 45,000 tons of wheat and 11,800 tons of vegetable oil, followed by $15 million in 1997 and $10 million in 1998. The first year's consignment, expected to arrive in October 1996, will be used to support DPPC relief programmes.
Import requirements and customs
A federal tariffs regulation recently amended the duty free status of organisations involved in relief and development programmes. According to the new directives, all free clearance of capital goods related to NGO programmes will from now require endorsement by the Investment Office of Ethiopia, which has been given the responsibility of certifying duty free imports in line with approved project inputs.
Market prices and trends
While cereal prices in most Ethiopian markets typical start rising soon after the main meher-harvest in November and December, this has not occurred in the 1995/96 season. On the contrary, prices have been declining during the entire year, a trend attributed primarily to the large 1995 meher harvest.
This year's persistently low prices suggest that the supply of grain on the markets is more than adequate to meet demand and that the market is anticipating another good meher harvest in 1996. A number of regional and local governments have expressed concern, however, that low cereal prices may inhibit farmers from increasing the area planted as it is feared they will not receive adequate returns on their investments.
HEALTH AND SANITATION
Epidemics
Malaria: Ethiopia is currently at the height of the seasonal transmission of malaria, and outbreaks have been reported from various parts of the country in the past two months. According to reports received from the regional bureaus of health, outbreaks have affected a total 11,355 people along the Rift Valley, of which more than 50% have been confirmed malaria positive. The areas have been sprayed, emergency health kits dispatched, and the affected inhabitants treated by the malaria control centres. Health Net International indicates that malaria epidemics have also been reported among the people of Ambiwara and Melka Worer areas of the Afar Region. An epidemic outbreak in North Omo zone has also been controlled.
Emergency water supply
As a result of widespread floods in the Awash river basin, three water supply systems in Nazareth town (98 kms from Addis Ababa) and one in Metehara (approximately 200 kms from Addis Ababa) have been completely submerged. Subsequently, the Oromiya Regional Administration is expected to prepare and submit to UNICEF an appeal for rehabilitation measures and technical input requirements.
REFUGEES IN ETHIOPIA
Refugee/returnee statistics
Sudanese refugees: The number of assisted Sudanese refugees in three settlement sites in western Ethiopia reached 71,490 with the following breakdown: Bonga 16,933; Dimma 12,034; and Fugnido 42,523.
The total figure includes 4 Kenyans and 82 Ugandans. Figures are based on records of the Administration for Refugee and Returnee Affairs - ARRA, taking into account new arrivals, births and deaths. Since spontaneous departures are unknown, the actual total may be lower.
Somali Refugees: The total assisted Somalis in the eight camps reached 287,408 with the following breakdown: Hartisheik 58,699; Kebribeyah 10,258; Darwanaji 43,006; Teferiber 46,379; Camaboker 31,932; Daror 44,987; Rabasso 24,865; Aisha 15,282; and various camps 12,000 (unregistered and unassisted).
Other refugees: An estimated 15,000 unassisted Somali refugees are currently in Dollo; 8,671 Kenyan refugees are assisted Moyale and Dokisso areas; 18,000 Djiboutian refugees are assisted in the Afar Region; and 627 urban refugees currently receive assistance in Addis Ababa.
Refugee food pipeline
The food pipeline for the refugee programme remains precarious. As recommended by the joint UNHCR/WFP mission in June 1996, the cereal rations for all caseloads have been reduced by 25%. However, even with this reduction, confirmed pledges of grain and vegetable oil will allow food distributions only until the end of October in the eastern camps and until November in the western camps.
REPATRIATION
Repatriation from Sudan
Repatriation of a remaining 23,0006 Ethiopian refugees from the Sudan is on hold until the end of the main rainy season at the end of September. A UNHCR mission is scheduled to visit Khartoum to review the procedures with counterparts in Sudan and estimate the remaining caseload to be repatriated to Ethiopia. It is anticipated that up to 13,000 people may return to Ethiopia from Sudan by the end of 1996.
Repatriation from Somalia
Preparations are still under way for the pilot repatriation of 10,000 Somali refugees from Ethiopia to North-west Somalia. A joint mission by UNHCR, the regional administration and refugee elders from the two Gadabursi camps (Darwanaji and Teferiber) and Hartisheik camp visited areas of origin in North-west Somalia during August to in preparation for this phase of repatriation. Following meetings with the local communities, the mission concluded positively that the areas west of Hargeisa are safe for refugees to return. A follow-up UNHCR mission is expected to visit the area at the beginning of September to obtain final clearance for the repatriation.
DISCLAIMER The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever of the UN concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Source: UNDP/EUE field reports; CARE; European Union; FAO; FEWS/EU reports; National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA); Ministry of Agriculture; MSF Holland; SCF (UK); UNICEF; UNHCR; WFP; WHO.
3 September, 1996
FOOTNOTES 1 Refer to the regional update section of this report. 2 The general developments section of this report is more comprehensively covered in the "Horn of Africa - Monthly Review" prepared by the UNDP-EUE; for more information please refer to the latest HoA Monthly Review, Vol. 1., No. 4, covering the period 20 July - 31 August 1996. 3 USAID's Famine Early Warning System/EU Food Security Unit report for July 1996. 4 This amount reflects the cancellation of 17,386 tons of 1995 carry over pledges that were included as part of food availability in 1996. 5 Source: UNHCR refugee statistics and registration by site as of 31 July 1996. Total of refugees in Ethiopia stands at 401,196. 6 This figure is subject to change and refers to the initial planning figure of 50,000 registered Ethiopians refugees in Sudan, of which 27,300 repatriated between December 1995 - June 1996.
UNDP Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia P.O. Box 5580 Addis Ababa Ethiopia
Tel. (251-1) 511028 Fax (251-1) 511292 Email: UNEUE@padis.gn.apc.org
From: UNDP__EUE_at_UNECA@un.org Date: Fri, 06 Sep 96 11:23:36 EST Message-Id: <9608068420.AA842061275@mail-out.un.org> Subject: New reports by the UNDP Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia